Is there a way to get reliable death toll figures in armed conflicts?

Across the Mediterranean, the Israel Gaza battle has sparked worldwide concern, with arguments raging over the authenticity of claimed Palestinian fatalities. The difficulty of effectively recording the human cost of war connect these two seemingly unrelated conflicts.

Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has been characterised by its complexity, human toll, and geopolitical relevance. Since the escalation of the war in 2022, narratives emanating from the war-torn region provide a vivid picture of civilian struggles in the midst of military combat.

The facts

Currently over 500, 000 people have lost their lives in both wars that doesn’t not seem to end anytime soon.

The accuracy of Palestinian fatality numbers in the Hamas-Israel conflict has been called into question, notably because of disparities between Gaza’s Ministry of Health (MOH) data and media accounts.

Both the Ukraine conflict and the Hamas-Israel conflict have seen a decline in civilian deaths but no matching decrease in armed violence. Despite decreased documented civilian casualties, armed conflict persists, instilling fear and posing threats to civilians.

Shelling, drone attacks, and armed bloodshed are all ongoing threats in both conflicts.

The battles between the nations resulted in considerable relocation of civilian populations. For example, the fighting has displaced approximately a fifth of Ukraine’s population, forcing millions to flee their homes. This is according to the International Organization for Migration.

Displacement is a key issue in the Israel-Gaza war, especially in Gaza, where violence has driven many people to evacuate their homes.

Both confrontations entail civilian targeting, with Russian soldiers in Ukraine displaying a greater tolerance for civilian losses. The Hamas-Israel battles concentrates on civilian casualties, whereas Ukraine’s freedom provides better security but leaves people vulnerable. Both battles had substantial implications for civilian life, with military fortunes determining safety.

Again, the conflicts have an economic cost, with Ukraine suffering from occupied areas and destruction, and Gaza experiencing infrastructure damage and mobility restrictions. Civilians’ safety varies by region, with some seeing fewer attacks and others enduring more intense fighting.

The arguments

Data problems, agencies’ reliance on media counts of casualties, and other issues all have an impact on the accuracy of death tolls and casualties in Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, respectively.

Data Limitations

Both battles encounter difficulties in correctly recording events and casualties.

In Ukraine, there are reporting gaps, particularly in occupied areas, making it impossible to follow individual displacements and quantify infrastructural disruption.

In the Hamas-Israel conflict, relying on media reporting for casualty estimates raises issues regarding the stated death toll, especially during times of severe battle.

Morale and war effort

Both battles consider morale and the war effort. Concerns about ammo shortages and military capability have emerged in the Ukraine conflict, affecting morale and recruiting.

The battle between Hamas and Israel has had a considerable impact on morale and recruiting, with both sides struggling to sustain their war operations.

Diaspora

Both conflicts involve diaspora communities impacted by the violence.

Many refugees in Ukraine want to return, but they confront problems such as integrating into host countries and uncertain deadlines for the war’s end.

Similarly, in the Hamas-Israel conflict, Palestinian refugees face problems such as integration into host society and uncertainty about the conflict’s resolution.

Overall, despite differences in context and geopolitical dynamics, the conflict in Ukraine and the Hamas-Israel conflict are similar in terms of civilian impact, population displacement, civilian targeting, economic consequences, and challenges in accurately documenting casualties.

These parallels emphasise the complex and often devastating reality that civilians encounter in the midst of armed conflict.