Is Sweden’s accession to NATO changing the Baltics?

Just a few months ago, Sweden’s NATO membership appeared distant and uncertain. After submitting its application in May 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there were moments when it seemed Stockholm might face prolonged uncertainty. While Finland swiftly became a NATO member last April after applying at the same time, Sweden encountered diplomatic challenges.

The facts

Last summer, Qur’an burnings in Sweden strained relations with Turkiye, casting doubt on Ankara’s approval. As recently as September, a public dispute between Viktor Orbán’s government and Sweden over criticism of Hungary’s democracy and teaching in Swedish schools added to the hurdles. Even after Turkiye’s parliament gave approval, Orbán was pushing for negotiations in a public letter late last month.

However, last week, Hungary’s ruling party, FIDESZ, announced the parliamentary discussion, ending the almost two-year waiting game. By Friday, Kristersson and Orbán unveiled a military deal allowing Hungary to purchase four Gripen planes from Sweden, underlining their commitment to each other despite disagreements. On Monday, the Hungarian parliament voted in favour of Sweden’s NATO membership.

If administrative processes between Hungary and Washington proceed as planned, Sweden’s flag could be flying outside NATO’s HQ in Brussels in a matter of days.

The arguments

For NATO, Sweden’s accession provides the alliance with access to Swedish territory, effectively transforming the Baltic into a “NATO sea” surrounded by member countries. Political analysts anticipate Sweden serving as a logistical hub for defence planning, including the transportation of personnel and equipment to potential future war fronts.

As for Sweden, the country has been gearing up for this development for months, behaving as if it were already a full NATO member. Agreements have been signed with the US, granting full access to 17 military bases, and Sweden has initiated its NATO integration, even announcing plans to deploy forces to Latvia.

This shift represents a significant change in national identity for historically neutral Sweden. Prime Minister Kristersson warned Swedes in January to prepare for the possibility of war, prompting the reinstatement of compulsory civic duty, a form of national service dismantled after the Cold War. A portion of the population will now be called up for military service involuntarily. NATO membership also entails increased defence spending.

For Social Democrat voters, this move signifies a remarkable departure. NATO membership was previously considered unthinkable within the party, with former Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist declaring in the autumn of 2021 that he could “guarantee” he would never participate in a process to join NATO. However, as Russia’s invasion led to a significant shift in public opinion and among political parties, the leader of the Social Democrats, then Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, initiated the process of Sweden’s NATO membership only months later.

Magnus Hjort, the director general of Sweden’s psychological defence agency, has characterized this as a historic moment for the country. Robert Dalsjö, a director of research at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, suggested that Hungary’s vote could lead to Sweden becoming a NATO member by the end of the week, noting that the alliance already has preparations in place for the ceremony, including a marquee and flagpole.

At a broader level, Dalsjö sees this step as part of a larger process, marking the completion of Sweden’s “long farewell to neutrality.” This process began at the end of the Cold War when Sweden abandoned the label of neutrality and applied for EU membership.

For Prime Minister Kristersson, leader of Sweden’s center-right ruling coalition, the development brings significant relief. Since assuming office in October 2022, the NATO issue has loomed over him. With his Moderate party facing comparatively low poll ratings, the membership propels him more prominently onto the global stage as a key player in a new Nordic power base.