Turkiye’s parliament will approve Sweden’s NATO bid

The Grand National Assembly is set to hold a debate on Tuesday, as reported by state media, with a possible vote on the same day. The ratification by Turkiye would leave Hungary as the sole remaining holdout in the accession process initiated by Sweden and Finland nearly two years ago in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Despite this, on Tuesday, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that he had invited his Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristersson, for negotiations regarding his country’s potential entry into the military alliance. Finland became the 31st member of NATO last April, significantly increasing NATO’s border with Russia and enhancing the defence capabilities of three small Baltic nations that joined the bloc after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

During the Cold War, Sweden and Finland adopted a policy of military non-alignment in the face of the confrontation between Russia and the United States. However, the geopolitical landscape shifted following Russia’s invasion of its western neighbour.

Hungarian Prime Minister Orban’s invitation to negotiate with Sweden contrasts with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s resistance to Sweden’s NATO accession, reflecting Erdogan’s more nuanced approach toward Moscow. Ankara has maintained and expanded trade with Russia while simultaneously supplying Ukraine with drones and other essential weaponry.

Erdogan stands out among NATO leaders for his regular meetings and phone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. There are reports in Turkish media suggesting that Putin could make his first wartime visit to Turkiye next month.

Erdogan initially objected to Sweden’s NATO bid, primarily citing Stockholm’s perceived acceptance of Kurdish groups that Ankara considers “terrorists.” In response, Sweden has strengthened its antiterrorism legislation and implemented other security measures as requested by Erdogan regarding members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), designated as a “terrorist” group by both the European Union and the United States. Additionally, NATO members Finland, Canada, and the Netherlands, along with Sweden, have taken measures to ease Turkiye’s arms export policies.

The Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee approved Sweden’s bid last month after Erdogan submitted it in October. However, Erdogan has since insisted that the United States fulfil its commitment to delivering a batch of F-16 fighter jets for Turkiye’s aging air force. In a telephone conversation last month, Erdogan discussed his demands with US President Joe Biden.

US officials argue that Turkiye’s request could gain the necessary congressional approval if Sweden’s NATO accession proceeds – an assertion reiterated by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his visit to Istanbul this month. After news broke that Turkiye was prepared to ratify the Swedish candidacy, US Department of State deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel stated, “We have not minced words about how ready we are for Sweden to formally join the alliance. We have long believed that Sweden has fulfilled its commitment, and we look forward to this process advancing.”