Why is the war in Gaza impacting South Africa’s elections?

Three months before South Africa’s highly anticipated general elections, there is a huge transformation in the political landscape. While issues like government corruption, power cuts, and economic instability have been extensively discussed since Cyril Ramaphosa assumed the presidency in 2018, the ongoing conflict in Gaza involving Israel has recently become a pivotal election topic.

The facts

Throughout South Africa’s history, the matter of Palestine has been a significant source of division in its politics. During the apartheid era, the white government sided with Israel, while the anti-apartheid movement aligned itself with Palestinian resistance.

The prolonged conflict in Gaza since October has compelled political parties, especially the two major ones, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and the primary opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), to clearly state their positions on the war. The ANC-led government has consistently expressed a pro-Palestine stance, condemning Israel’s actions and referring the matter to international legal authorities.

In contrast, the DA has displayed inconsistency, initially strongly supporting Israel and later adopting a more ambivalent stance, advocating for a two-state solution and expressing solidarity with both Palestinians and Israelis. Unlike smaller opposition parties, the DA has refrained from calling for a ceasefire or using the term “genocide” in relation to Israel’s actions.

As the May 29 vote approaches, the ANC’s pro-Palestine stance has gained widespread popularity within and beyond South Africa.

The arguments

Before October, the Democratic Alliance (DA) appeared to be gaining momentum for a potential upset at the national level. The 2019 general election witnessed a low voter turnout of only 49%, marking the lowest since the country’s first democratic vote in 1994.

During that time, the African National Congress (ANC) faced challenges, as surveys showed that less than 50% of respondents supported the ANC. Protests against the rising cost of living were becoming more frequent, and President Ramaphosa’s re-election campaign was marred by a scandal involving the theft of about $500,000 in cash from his game farm.

However, the parties’ contrasting positions on the war in October worked in favour of the struggling ANC. The ANC’s firm stance against Israel, contrasting it with the DA’s position, is challenging for DA to justify supporting another country engaged in ethnic cleansing while resembling an apartheid state similar to South Africa’s past.

Historically, foreign policy has not played a significant role in influencing the voting decisions of South Africans. Those who are already voting for the African National Congress (ANC) are likely to be motivated by the party’s approach to Palestine. Muslim voters who are concerned about the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) stance were irritated, but not enough to switch to the ANC. If they moved away from the DA, it’s more likely to be towards smaller parties and not ANC.

Analysts say this time could be different. They believe there will be a shift of voters away from the DA due to its support for Israel and refusal to address the Gaza conflict. While some may vote for the ANC because of its pro-Palestine stance, others may opt for alternative parties like the Muslim party Al Jama-ah as a form of protest against the DA without necessarily supporting the ANC.

There are indications that the DA’s initial stance has triggered growing dissatisfaction within its Muslim and Black constituencies, particularly in the Western Cape. However, the DA’s efforts, such as Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis pledging funds and stadium usage for friendly matches involving the Palestine men’s national team, have not yielded the desired outcome. During the first match attended by President Ramaphosa, Hill-Lewis faced disapproval, with some perceiving his gestures as insufficient.