Why Armenia is gradually distancing itself from Russia

Armenia on Thursday formally joined the International Criminal Court (ICC), in a move that traditional ally Moscow has denounced as “unfriendly”.

The Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan speech after joining the ICC suggests a shift in Armenia’s foreign policy, particularly in terms of its defence and military partnerships. Traditionally, Armenia has maintained close ties with Russia, relying on Moscow as a major defence and military ally. However, Pashinyan’s comments indicate a re-evaluation of this relationship.

Pashinyan questioned Russian alliance

Pashinyan acknowledged that Armenia can no longer solely rely on Russia as its main defence partner, citing repeated letdowns and changing circumstances. He suggested that Armenia should consider forging closer ties with the United States and France as potential alternatives.

The prime minister’s remarks highlight a more nuanced approach to Armenia’s defence strategy, recognizing the need for diversification and a broader set of alliances. Pashinyan’s call for understanding with whom Armenia can maintain military-technical and defence relations reflects a pragmatic approach, taking into account both objective and subjective factors.

The shift in policy could have broader geopolitical implications in the region, especially considering Armenia’s geographical location and historical ties with Russia. The move towards greater engagement with the United States and France may signify Armenia’s desire for a more balanced and diversified foreign policy, reducing dependence on any single ally.

Armenia needs new national security strategy

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statements indicated a significant reassessment of Armenia’s security and defence policies. He underlined the need for Armenia to think about security ties with a range of countries, including the United States, France, India, and Georgia. He also openly questioned whether Armenia should remain a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a Russian-led military alliance. This move suggests a reconsideration of Armenia’s commitment to the regional security framework dominated by Russia.

Pashinyan criticized Russia for its perceived failure to support Armenia effectively during the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Because of this, the Prime Minister indicated the need for a new national security strategy and a strengthened Armenian military. There is a need of a broader re-evaluation of Armenia’s defence capabilities and a potential shift towards greater self-reliance in security matters.

Russia wants to keep Armenia in its geopolitical orbit

The geopolitical context is crucial, with Armenia caught in the competition between Russia and the United States for influence in the region. Russia has expressed concerns about Western attempts to create divisions between Armenia and Russia, while Azerbaijan accuses France of contributing to tensions by supplying arms to Armenia. Last year discussions of Pashinyan with NATO’s special representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia indicate an openness to engaging with Western military alliances. This could further signify a desire to diversify Armenia’s security partnerships beyond its traditional alliances.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has cautioned against Armenia leaving the CSTO, suggesting that it is not in Armenia’s interests to do so.