What impact does Sweden’s NATO membership have?

On March 7, 2024, Sweden officially became the 32nd member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the world’s largest and most powerful military alliance.

Sweden’s accession to NATO was a historic and strategic decision that had been in the making for several years and was influenced by various factors, such as the security situation in Europe, the relations with Russia, and public opinion in Sweden.

What does Sweden’s NATO membership mean for the country, its allies, and its adversaries?

Why did Sweden join NATO?

Sweden has a long tradition of neutrality and non-alignment in international affairs, dating back to the early 19th century. For decades, Sweden maintained a policy of self-reliance and deterrence, avoiding involvement in military conflicts and alliances.

However, Sweden’s security environment changed dramatically after the end of the Cold War, especially after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. Sweden faced new threats and challenges, such as cyberattacks, hybrid warfare, and disinformation, as well as increased military activity and pressure from Russia in the Baltic Sea region.

Sweden realised that its defence capabilities and resources were insufficient to cope with these challenges and that it needed to strengthen its cooperation and integration with other countries, especially its Nordic and Baltic neighbours.

The country also recognised the importance and value of NATO as the main guarantor of peace and stability in Europe and as a platform for collective defence and security. Sweden had already been a close partner of NATO since 1994, when it joined the Partnership for Peace program, and had participated in several NATO-led missions and exercises.

Sweden’s decision to join NATO was further influenced by public opinion and the political consensus in the country. According to surveys, the support for NATO membership among the Swedish population increased from 17% in 2012 to 45% in 2023, while the opposition decreased from 55% to 37%.

The main reasons for this shift were the perceived threat from Russia, the trust in NATO, and the desire to show solidarity with the Baltic states. The political parties in Sweden also reached a broad agreement on the NATO issue, except the Left Party and the Sweden Democrats, who opposed the membership.

What are the benefits and challenges of Sweden’s NATO membership?

Sweden’s NATO membership brings several benefits and challenges for the country, both in terms of security and politics. On the positive side, Sweden can enjoy the protection and assistance of the other 31 NATO allies, who are bound by Article 5 of the NATO treaty to consider an attack on one as an attack on all.

This means that Sweden can deter and defend itself against any potential aggression from Russia or other adversaries and that it can rely on the collective capabilities and resources of the alliance. Sweden can also have more influence and voice in the decision-making and policy-making processes of NATO and can contribute to the development and reform of the alliance.

On the negative side, Sweden’s NATO membership also entails some costs and risks for the country, both in terms of finances and diplomacy. Sweden has to increase its defence spending to meet the NATO target of 2% of GDP, which means that it has to allocate more funds and resources to its military sector, and possibly reduce its spending on other areas, such as welfare and development.

Sweden also has to comply with the obligations and commitments of the NATO membership, which means that it has to participate in the collective defence and security operations of the alliance and that it has to support the positions and interests of the other NATO allies, even if they may differ from its own.

How does Sweden’s NATO membership affect its relations with other countries?

Sweden’s NATO membership has significant implications for its relations with other countries, both within and outside the alliance. Within NATO, Sweden can strengthen its ties and cooperation with its allies, especially with its Nordic and Baltic partners, who share similar values, interests, and challenges.

NATO’s newest member can also enhance its dialogue and coordination with the other major members, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, and can play a more active and constructive role in the transatlantic partnership. Sweden can also benefit from the access and exchange of information, intelligence, and technology that the NATO membership provides.

Outside NATO, Sweden’s membership may affect its relations with some countries, especially with Russia, which sees the NATO enlargement as a threat and a provocation. Russia has repeatedly warned and criticised Sweden for its intention to join NATO and has threatened to take countermeasures and revise its military posture and doctrine.

Russia has also accused Sweden of undermining regional stability and security, and of violating the principles of neutrality and non-alignment. Sweden’s NATO membership may also complicate its relations with some other countries, such as China, Iran, and Turkey, who may perceive Sweden as more aligned with the West and less independent and neutral.

Conclusion

Sweden’s NATO membership is a milestone and a game-changer for the country, the alliance, and the region. It reflects its strategic choice and its security needs, as well as its values and its solidarity with its allies.

The alliance also brings benefits and challenges, opportunities and risks, for the country and its relations with other countries. Sweden’s NATO membership is a historic and significant decision that will have lasting and profound consequences for the future of Europe and the world.