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South Africa 2024 election: Will ruling ANC’s 30-year dominance finally end?
About 28 million registered voters in South Africa will cast their ballots on May 29, to elect representatives for the national and provincial parliaments, marking the country's seventh democratic general election since the end of white-minority rule in 1994.
Historically, the African National Congress (ANC) has consistently secured a commanding victory in every election since 1994, granting it an absolute parliamentary majority and the ability to independently appoint the president and enact legislation. However, some polls suggest this pattern may be disrupted in the upcoming electoral cycle.
Recent reports by the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation on the election on March 8 suggest that the ANC could receive less than 50% of the national vote for the first time.
Candidates
Independent candidates are permitted to compete for seats in both the National Assembly and provincial legislatures. A total of 14,889 candidates, nominated by 70 political parties (excluding 11 independents), have been cleared by the election commission to contest 887 seats. 31 political parties will participate in the national elections for the first time.
The electoral system
South Africa holds elections every five years under a proportional representation system, where parties and candidates vie for 400 seats in the National Assembly. Of these, 200 seats are contested nationally, while the remaining 200 are divided among the nine provinces, contested by parties and independent candidates. Provincial legislature seats are allocated based on population size in each province.
On election day, voters will be issued with three ballots instead of the usual two. Each ballot requires voters to select either one party or one candidate. Two of these ballots will be used to determine the composition of the National Assembly, while the third will be designated for the election of members to the provincial legislature in each province.
What's at stake?
Even though the ANC replaced former President Jacob Zuma with Cyril Ramaphosa as the leader of the ANC in 2018, enabling him to lead the party into the 2019 elections, internal divisions continue to plague the ANC.
While President Ramaphosa has gradually garnered more backing within the party and is set to represent the party in the 2024 elections, there is a growing division within the party. Zuma's support for a new party, uMkhonto weSizwe, poses a direct challenge to Ramaphosa's leadership.
The ANC party faces mounting pressure due to issues such as high unemployment, economic disparities, corruption allegations, and ongoing internal divisions. Rising violent crime rates, an average of 130 rapes and 80 murders a day in the last three months of 2023 have further strained public confidence in the authorities. The election will be closely watched as a test of the ANC's ability to address these pressing issues and maintain its political dominance.
