Here’s why nothing new will happen in Iran’s election

Iran is set to conduct parliamentary elections today, marking the first general vote since a 2022 uprising that called for an end to the rule of the Islamic Republic. Although the government violently quelled the protests, the desire for change persists, with many Iranians considering boycotting the election as a form of protest.

The voter turnout is expected to be low

Anticipated to be particularly low, voter turnout, especially in Tehran and other major cities, is projected based on government polls reported in Iranian media. The significance of the election lies in how both government supporters and critics perceive voter turnout as indicative of legitimacy. Opponents assert their decision to abstain from voting signals a lack of belief in the current system’s ability to bring about meaningful change through the ballot box.

Additionally, a separate election will determine members of the 88-seat Assembly of Experts. According to Iran’s Constitution, this assembly is responsible for selecting the supreme leader, the highest clerical authority who holds sway over crucial state matters and serves as the commander in chief of the armed forces. While the assembly has the authority to supervise or dismiss the supreme leader, it has never exercised this power.

With the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 84 and having held his position for over three decades, there is widespread expectation that the upcoming assembly will choose his successor.

Elections in Iran are not free

Human rights groups argue that elections in Iran lack fairness and freedom due to the opaque process of candidate vetting and widespread disqualifications orchestrated by the Guardian Council. This council is accused of manipulating both presidential and parliamentary elections by essentially eliminating the element of choice for the public, restricting their options to candidates it deems suitable for office.

In the past, Iran’s elections were competitive, featuring candidates from major political parties and yielding unpredictable results with high participation. However, in recent years, voters have been presented exclusively with conservative candidates.

For the upcoming parliamentary election, the final list of candidates was disclosed less than two weeks before the vote, and campaigning commenced merely 10 days prior. This tight timeline leaves little room for Iranian voters to familiarize themselves with the candidates and understand the issues they intend to address if elected. Those opting to boycott the vote cite the last-minute candidate announcement and rushed campaigning as additional reasons to deem the elections neither free nor fair.

All candidates must undergo vetting and approval by the Guardian Council, a 12-member appointed clerical body. This council has disqualified candidates across the spectrum, including independents, centrists, and most nominees from the reformist political faction. The Reform Front, a coalition of reformist parties advocating for greater social freedom and engagement with the West, declared a lack of candidates in this election, labeling it as “meaningless, noncompetitive, and ineffective.”

The majority of the 15,200 candidates allowed to run belong to conservative political parties. They are vying for the 290 seats in Parliament, each holding a four-year term.

Conservatives will win the elections

Preliminary results are set to surface within a day, with final results typically declared after the completion of ballot counting and verification, leading to the convening of the new Parliament in May.

Regarding the likely winners, the conservatives are anticipated to continue their dominance in Parliament, primarily due to the absence of significant opposition. Since 2020, conservative and hard-line political factions have maintained control over the Parliament, extended to the presidency since 2021 and the judiciary, thereby consolidating authority across all branches of Iran’s government. The prevailing lack of genuine competition at the polls has been a key factor contributing to their consistent success.