Northern Irish leader predicts unification of Ireland

On Saturday, Michelle O’Neill, a pro-Irish unity politician, made history by becoming Northern Ireland’s First Minister, marking the revival of power-sharing after a two-year boycott by the largest pro-UK party. Following this development, O’Neill expressed her anticipation of a reunification referendum with the Republic of Ireland within the next decade.

“Yes, I believe we’re entering a decade of opportunity,” she stated in an interview with Sky News when questioned about the likelihood of a border poll in that timeframe. “Numerous changes are occurring, challenging established norms, including the fact that a nationalist republican was never expected to hold the position of the first minister. All of this reflects a significant shift.”

No clear mechanism for a referendum

Northern Ireland was established in 1921 with a built-in Protestant majority, a response to the threat of civil war by pro-UK unionists as Ireland sought self-rule from Britain. However, the late 1960s saw three decades of sectarian conflict within the UK territory, historically known as The Troubles. The 1998 peace deal substantially reduced violence and included provisions for a potential all-Ireland vote on unification, commonly referred to as a border poll.

According to the accord, the British and Irish governments should arrange a vote if it becomes evident that “a majority of those voting would express a wish” for Northern Ireland to secede from the UK. Although the specific mechanism for triggering such a referendum was not explicitly outlined, reliable polling on the issue is generally considered the determining factor.

Sinn Fein and DUP ended the political boycott

Since May 2022, Michelle O’Neill has held the position of First Minister-designate, following Sinn Fein’s emergence as the largest party in the 90-seat assembly, reflecting demographic shifts toward the old Catholic minority. However, a two-year boycott by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the Northern Ireland Assembly had hindered her assumption of the role until this week.

After prolonged negotiations, the DUP re-entered power-sharing, reaching an agreement with London on post-Brexit trade rules that had been a point of contention. Emma Little-Pengelly, a DUP lawmaker, now serves as Deputy First Minister, a position of equal significance to O’Neill’s.

As part of the arrangement with the DUP, the UK government released a paper asserting that it “sees no realistic prospect of a border poll leading to a united Ireland,” citing recent polling. The document added, “We believe that… Northern Ireland’s future in the UK will be secure for decades to come, and as such, the conditions for a border poll are unlikely to be objectively met.”

O’Neill comes from an IRA family

O’Neill, 47, who was born in the Republic of Ireland but raised in the north, comes from a family with links to the militant Irish Republican Army. Her father was imprisoned as an IRA member, an uncle raised money for the group, and two of her cousins were shot — one fatally — by security forces. O’Neill has been criticized for attending events commemorating the IRA and told an interviewer there was “no alternative” to the group’s armed campaign during the Troubles.