No surprise in Azerbaijan: Aliyev wins presidential election

Initial results released by the country’s election commission indicated that, at the conclusion of Wednesday, President Aliyev, aged 62, held a substantial lead following the declaration of results from 54.5% of electoral precincts. It was anticipated Aliyev was to secure another seven-year term, particularly in the wake of a military offensive last year that brought the Armenian separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh under his government’s control.

Crackdown on President’s opposition influenced the result

A fifth term for the incumbent seemed inevitable due to a crackdown on independent media and the absence of any meaningful opposition. In September, Azeri forces launched a rapid campaign that compelled separatists, who had held the territory for over three decades, to disarm, resulting in tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians fleeing to neighbouring Armenia.

Eager to capitalize on this victory, Aliyev announced a snap election for February, originally scheduled for 2025, aiming for the poll to signify the start of a new era with Azerbaijan having full control over its territory.

Last year’s lightning offensive was ordered by the president after a nine-month blockade to regain complete control of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. In January, when Aliyev announced the election, he stated that polls would be conducted in the Karabakh region for the first time following the exodus of ethnic Armenians.

Aliyev became president in 2003

Aliyev, who initially assumed the presidency in 2003 following his father Heydar Aliyev’s death, a former KGB officer who had ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, has been re-elected in 2008, 2013, and most recently in 2018 with 86% of the votes. All these elections faced criticism from opposition parties, being denounced as rigged.

In 2009, Aliyev amended the constitution, allowing him to run for an unlimited number of presidential terms, a move criticized by rights advocates who argue that it could lead to him becoming president for life.

The main opposition parties boycotted the electoral process

His tenure has been characterized by the implementation of increasingly stringent laws limiting political discourse, along with arrests of opposition figures and independent journalists, especially in the lead-up to the election.

Aliyev encountered little opposition from the six other candidates, some of whom openly praised him. Azerbaijan’s primary opposition parties, Musavat and the Popular Front party, opted not to participate in the election.

Arif Hajili, the leader of Musavat, informed that their decision was rooted in the absence of democratic conditions, citing numerous jailed journalists and political activists, over 200 political prisoners, and significant issues with election laws. He highlighted concerns that election commissions were essentially influenced by the authorities.

Ali Kerimli, leader of the Popular Front party, asserted that the decision to call for an early election without engaging in public debate indicates the authorities’ fear of political competition.

Approximately six million voters were registered for the election.