Killing in Beirut raises fears of an extension of the Gaza conflict

A residential building in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, was hit by a precision drone strike on Tuesday, January 2. The strike, attributed to Israel, targeted the apartment on the third floor where Saleh Al-Arouri, the number two in the Hamas political office, was located. Al-Arouri, a 57-year-old Palestinian and a key figure in Hamas, was killed along with six others, including two commanders of the military wing.

This targeted assassination is considered the most significant blow Israel has dealt to Hamas since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip on October 7. Al-Arouri, a priority target for Israel, was close to Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, and played a role in planning a deadly attack on Israel in October. The operation marks the first time Israel has targeted leaders of the movement in exile and is a notable development in its relations with Hezbollah.

Al-Arouri’s assassination is viewed as a turning point in the history of Hamas. He was a respected historical figure, known for his efforts towards reconciliation with Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah and unity among Palestinian factions. His death is seen as a significant loss for Hamas. Despite this, Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, vowed that the movement “will never be defeated,” emphasizing the resilience and determination of the resistance.

Al-Arouri joined Hamas in 1987 during his Islamic studies at Hebron University. Involved in establishing the movement’s military infrastructure in the West Bank, he faced accusations of being connected to the kidnapping of three young boys in 2014, leading to a war in Gaza. Arrested multiple times by Israel, he was released in April 2010 on the condition that he leave the West Bank. Al-Arouri then moved from Damascus to Istanbul and eventually to Beirut, joining the political bureau of Hamas in exile and becoming its number two in 2017.

As a key leader for the West Bank, Al-Arouri advocated for Palestinian unity and called for a widespread uprising in the territories and Israel. His influence grew after the war in Gaza in May 2021, during which unrest occurred in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and “mixed” Jewish-Arab cities in Israel. Israel continued to accuse him of arming and controlling small groups in Jenin, Nablus, and refugee camps.

He had previously negotiated a reconciliation between the main Palestinian parties in 2020, aiming for the first general elections since 2006, which were ultimately cancelled by President Abbas.

Since the early days of the Gaza war, Israeli officials have repeatedly asserted that Hamas leaders in exile would face consequences for the October 7 attack. In December 2023, a leaked recording from a war cabinet meeting revealed the intention to assassinate Hamas leaders in Lebanon, Turkey, and Qatar. Israel emphasized that the strike was not against the Lebanese state but a “surgical strike” targeting Hamas leadership. However, Lebanon denounced it as a violation of sovereignty, with outgoing Prime Minister Najib Mikati criticizing it as an attempt to escalate confrontation.

Beirut had previously been spared from the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel on the Lebanese border. Saleh Al-Arouri had taken residence there in 2017 after increased pressure on Qatar and Turkey to expel Hamas executives. Close to Hezbollah’s leadership, Arouri played a significant role in reconciling differences over the Syrian war and was an architect of the strategy of “unity of fronts” within the “axis of resistance” against Israel, sponsoring military operations from southern Lebanon.

Israeli officials have warned of potential Hezbollah retaliation following the assassination of the Hamas leader. Israel anticipates long-range attacks and placed the military on high alert.