Is Rwanda helping Burundi’s insurgents?

The closure in end of January of the border between Burundi and Rwanda has heightened tensions in an already strained relationship between the two East African Community (EAC) member countries. The closure followed accusations from Burundi that Rwanda is supporting Burundian insurgents operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The facts

Burundi officially severed relations and closed its border with Rwanda after President Evariste Ndayishimiye accused Rwanda of backing the Red-Tabara rebel group, which had waged war against Burundi’s government in 2015. Rwanda denies these allegations. In response to the border closure, Rwanda accused President Ndayishimiye of “inciting divisions among Rwandans” and jeopardizing peace and security in the Great Lakes region.

The historical context includes the closure of the border by Burundi in 2015 after a failed coup attempt, which was later reopened after more than five years. The current accusations highlight the tense relations between Rwanda and its neighbours, especially in the context of Rwanda being accused of supporting M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a claim that Rwanda denies.

Rwanda declared the accusations regarding support for insurgents are a false assessment of the situation. The regional geopolitical context is not being correctly interpreted, excluding the historical roots of instability in the region, particularly stemming from the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi ethnic group and the Burundian crisis of 1993.

The arguments

While analysts express concerns about the development and escalating tensions, many believe that a full-blown war is unlikely. The East African Community’s integration is being tested by this conflict, but observers suggest that both parties may exercise restraint as an open war is not in their best interests.

The 1994 genocide and the Burundian crisis have had a lasting impact on the region’s stability, and some analysts may overlook or downplay the origins of the crisis. Rwandan President Paul Kagame also expressed his bewilderment at why Rwanda is consistently associated with the M23 fighters in eastern Congo. He strongly denied any involvement in creating the conflict in eastern Congo and asserted that blaming Rwanda for the M23 conflict lacks clear reasons.

President Kagame, in addressing a national forum in Kigali, made it clear that he would not hesitate to defend Rwanda from any threats. The situation remains complex, with historical factors playing a significant role in shaping the current geopolitical dynamics in the Great Lakes region.

The numerous interstate conflicts in the East African Community (EAC) region are posing a threat to the integration process. The accusations between Burundi and Rwanda, the dispute between Kenya and Tanzania over air rights, and the rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are cited as negative developments that could impact regional peace, security, and trade.

Analyst underlined the need for EAC partner states to resolve disputes peacefully and exercise restraint, echoing statements made by EAC Secretary General Peter Mathuki. However, they expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of the EAC secretariat, referring to it as toothless. The admission of new members, such as the DRC and Somalia, may be prioritized over consolidating integration, citing the EAC’s shortcomings in addressing the political and security crisis in the eastern part of the DRC.

The chairman of the EAC Summit, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir, said an emergency meeting will take place soon to find political solutions to disputes. He proposed the involvement of the African Union and the UN as observers, mediators, and facilitators. President Kiir has announced plans to assign special envoys to address inter-state relations within a regional framework, with the goal of diffusing tension and preventing further escalation into conflict.