Is Modi’s influence among the Indian diaspora a boon or a threat to India’s future?

Some infographics circulating on WhatsApp say India is thriving under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. The colourful infographic showcasing Modi’s achievements over a decade includes a comparison of economic, educational, healthcare, welfare, and infrastructure statistics between Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the previous Congress party government.

But this message is not aimed at Indian voters. Instead, it targets the vast Indian diaspora in the United States and beyond.

The arguments

This is the narrative political parties have pushed relentlessly as nearly a billion voters participate in the world’s largest election.

Aljazeera reports that the organisation at the heart of this diaspora outreach is Non-Resident Indians For Mission 2024 (NRIM), a Florida-based company which was registered in July 2023. After the corporation registered as a foreign agent with the US Department of Justice (DoJ) in April 2024 under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), its operations and ties to the Modi administration became public.

These infographics were created for NRIM volunteers from 18 US states and 26 foreign countries. Despite attempts to obtain additional information from the DoJ and NRIM by Aljazeera, responses have been limited. Meanwhile, the BJP’s US offshoot, Overseas Friends of BJP (OFBJP), is rallying support for Modi, with plans to make 2.5 million phone calls to Indian voters.

Critics who disagree with Modi’s government outside of India worry about the consequences. They referred to Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Sikh in Canada, who was shot in June of last year by assailants who were allegedly associated with Indian intelligence. A plot to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, another Sikh activist, was foiled by US officials in November 2023. While denying any role in these instances, India has stated that it is looking into allegations made by US prosecutors about an attempted murder.

Muslims and Kashmiris share similar fears. Many lament the current atmosphere of intolerance and discrimination. Experts caution that Modi’s next term could completely silence criticism.

The facts

This propaganda-driven message, according to reports, addresses the vast Indian diaspora in the United States and beyond, encouraging them to forward these messages to their relatives and friends in India in support of Modi’s campaign.

NRIM’s papers identify Modi’s Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) as their foreign principal. The DoJ invoked FARA restrictions after discovering that NRIM’s proprietors, Gaurang Vaishnav and Girish Gandhi, were in contact with Nirav Shah, a PMO research official, about campaign materials.

Vaishnav and Gandhi are both key leaders of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America, which is tied to India’s far-right Vishwa Hindu Parishad.

Many in the Indian diaspora continue to be staunch supporters of Modi despite these concerns. Since the 2014 election, campaigns like “NaMo for PM” and “Global Indians For Bharat Vikas” have mobilised support from the diaspora.

However, not all Indians in the diaspora support Modi.

Pawan Singh, a Sikh activist based in Washington, DC, in an interview with Al Jazeera said he is increasingly worried about his safety. “I don’t feel safe in my own home. It’s just a matter of time before one assassination attempt succeeds. Nijjar’s was successful, Pannun’s wasn’t,” Singh said.

Texas-based Rabiha Rahman, who was born and raised in New Delhi said, “Everything has changed in the last 10 years. There is so much hatred. No member of the minority community is safe today,” Rahman tells Al Jazeera. “A potential third term for the BJP will be extremely scary. It is like a nightmare for Indian Muslims. I am scared for my extended family, who still live in India. It’s not the kind of country any more for which my grandfather sacrificed his life.”