Is Ecuador’s surge of violence a recent issue?

Ecuadorians no longer answer phone calls with the same confidence as before. Businesses no longer open as they once did, and there is a fear of not being able to sustain work due to the potential threat of extortion. This situation mirrors a pervasive fear experienced by many Ecuadorians, as the country grapples with a prolonged surge in crime in the last 3 years.

The facts

Once recognized as an island of peace in Latin America, the Andean nation now confronts the challenge of eliminating criminal gangs that operate freely in significant parts of the country.

In January alone, Ecuador witnessed a minimum of 391 violent deaths. The previous year marked the most violent in the country’s modern history, recording 7,872 murders, equivalent to 43.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.

This represents a significant rise from 2020 when the figure was only 7.8 per 100,000 inhabitants.

To combat the escalating crime rates, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has taken drastic measures, signing executive decrees to pave the way for a nationwide referendum. This referendum aims to enhance government security powers and amend the constitution. A voting date is expected to be determined in the coming days.

The arguments

The deterioration of Ecuador’s security situation has evolved over a decade, with a key catalyst being the expansion of the global cocaine trade.

The United Nations, in its latest World Drug Report, highlighted “a prolonged surge in both supply and demand of cocaine.” In 2021, approximately 22 million people consumed the drug, and production reached around 2,304 tonnes, marking the seventh consecutive year of increases.

Ecuador has increasingly played a significant role in exporting the drug from Latin America, situated between the two largest cocaine-producing countries globally, Peru and Colombia.

Ecuador’s plays a huge role in global narco-trafficking networks, being a small country that has become a crucial hub for exporting cocaine. Ecuador’s Pacific coast location makes it attractive for export operations looking to send cocaine abroad. The maritime cocaine shipping shifted away from the Mexico-Central America corridor to South America’s ports, and Ecuador’s strategically positioned ports have placed the country at the center of this phenomenon. As Ecuador’s significance in the cocaine trade grew, so did its criminal underworld, attracting new players such as prominent Mexican cartels and Balkan criminal gangs.

The role of the FARC agreement

Another contributing factor to the instability in Ecuador was a peace deal across the border in Colombia. For decades, Colombia had been entangled in a multifaceted internal conflict involving government forces, right-wing paramilitary groups, criminal networks, and left-wing rebels vying for power. In 2016, a significant breakthrough occurred when the largest left-wing group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), agreed to disband its armed forces in exchange for concessions such as rural development and social security programs.

As thousands of FARC fighters laid down their arms, a power vacuum emerged, providing an opportunity for other groups to seize control of its lucrative drug-trafficking routes, particularly along the border. The dissolution of the FARC led to a surge in violence as various gangs and armed groups competed for power, and these conflicts spilled over into neighbouring Ecuador. Additionally, some dissident members of the FARC, dissatisfied with the peace deal, relocated their operations to Ecuador, further contributing to the region’s instability.

Prisons controlled by gangs

Despite apprehending several high-profile gang leaders, Ecuador has struggled to deliver decisive blows to the criminal networks operating within its borders. Even imprisonment has failed to halt their proliferation, with gangs maintaining a presence in many of the country’s 36 prisons. In 2022, the head of the prison agency SNAI estimated that 11,000 of the 32,000 incarcerated individuals were gang members. United Nations experts reported that certain parts of Ecuador’s prisons were “self-governed by detainees who are members of criminal organizations.”

Experts attribute these challenges to systemic corruption that fosters conditions allowing gangs to operate with relative impunity.

Furthermore, experts argue that Ecuador’s surge in violence has been exacerbated by actions at the highest levels of government. Former President Rafael Correa has been accused of pressuring judges and interfering in cases. His successor, Lenin Moreno, initially pledged a different approach but ultimately eliminated Ecuador’s Ministry of Justice in 2018, replacing it with another agency named SNAI, which struggled to control the country’s prisons. Guillermo Lasso’s administration later attributed the escalating violence partly to Moreno’s decision.

Security – a topic often neglected

Experts believe that the violence is a result of successive policy choices under all three presidents, describing it as a combination of weak and co-opted institutions and a lack of prioritization for security concerns. Each president focused on different political goals, neglecting the pressing issue of security.

The COVID-19 pandemic added another layer of complexity to Ecuador’s security situation. With a population of around 17 million, the country experienced one of Latin America’s highest rates of COVID-related deaths, reaching 36,014 reported cases. The pandemic exacerbated an already struggling economy, primarily reliant on oil as its main export. The economic downturn was evident in a 7.5% decline in Ecuador’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020, driven by business closures and stay-at-home orders. Unemployment rose, particularly affecting the youth, who found it challenging to secure employment. Criminal networks seized the opportunity presented by desperation, exploiting economic hardships to recruit new members.

President Daniel Noboa, the youngest in Ecuador’s modern history, assumed office with the task of addressing the escalating violence. He won a snap election in October and faces a shortened term of 18 months. However, his victory was overshadowed by violence, including the murder of fellow presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio. Noboa declared an “internal armed conflict” and a 60-day state of emergency, designating 22 gangs as “terrorist” organizations. The military was authorized to target them, resulting in the arrest of over 3,600 suspected gang members.

Despite a reported reduction in the rate of daily homicides, the murder rate remained on track to match the record total of 2023. Acts of violence, such as armed gangs storming a live TV broadcast and prison incidents, continued to shock the public.