Is Donald Trump blocking military aid to Ukraine?

The potential approval of an aid package by the US Senate this week contrasts with the unyielding stance of House of Representatives Republicans. The likelihood of Congress passing military aid for Ukraine in the upcoming months, or even this year, appears increasingly remote.

The facts

The ramifications of this decision could be catastrophic. Ukraine is already grappling with an ammunition shortage, particularly in artillery shells, which is expected to worsen this year, leading to increasingly perilous outcomes.

There was a positive development for Ukraine last week with the EU agreeing to provide 50 billion euros in new financial support for the Ukrainian government.

However, European production lines are not yet prepared to bridge the munitions gap left by the Americans. This is expected to take until at least 2025, posing potential dangers for Ukraine in the second half of this year.

The arguments

Analysts describe the current situation as “extremely serious.” The ammunition deficit has already resulted in a rise in Ukrainian casualties. The uncertainty surrounding the arrival of new materiel supplies makes it impossible for the Ukrainian military to plan future operations. They suggest that the consequences of the munitions shortage “will initially be felt slowly and then felt fast.” They warn that “when it reaches the point that the consequences are very obvious, it will already be too late.”

The scarcity of weaponry is also impacting the willingness of Ukrainians to volunteer for military service. The escalating pressure on the Kyiv government partly explains the public discord between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his commander-in-chief, Valeriy Zaluzhny.

The apparent indifference from Trump and his Republican supporters is striking. They appear willing to risk a Russian victory, even if it marginally improves Trump’s chances of defeating President Joe Biden in November.

While some Republican hesitancy in providing new aid for Ukraine stems from genuine scepticism about the war, most of the delay is attributed to Trump’s refusal to give Biden any perceived “win” ahead of the presidential election.

Last year, Republicans insisted on tying military aid for Ukraine to new measures and funds for U.S. border security, a condition Democrats accepted. However, Trump and the Republicans are unwilling to accept this compromise. Trump seems intent on framing Biden as overseeing chaos and failure, stretching from the southern border to Kabul and Kyiv.

Democrats say that the freedom of Ukraine and the security of Europe is becoming collateral damage in Trump’s quest to reclaim the White House. They also accuse Trump is putting Ukraine in peril, allowing him to reinforce his preferred narrative about the Biden administration’s perceived weakness and failure.

However, Trump cannot achieve this on his own; the cooperation of Republicans in Congress is crucial. Trump’s success in the presidential primaries has convinced many Republicans, traditionally hesitant in their opposition to him, to align more closely with his demands. If he insists on blocking aid for Ukraine through Congress, House Republicans are likely to comply.

Bill Burns, director of the CIA, labelled abandoning Ukraine as a mistake of “historic proportions,” underlining that unlike previous wars, the US military is not actively engaged in the conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be benefiting from this situation, which might not be a stroke of luck but rather a payoff for a long-term Russian investment. Despite Trump dismissing claims of Kremlin interference in his 2016 election as the “Russia hoax,” evidence exists of Moscow’s efforts favouring Trump, such as hacking and releasing Democratic party emails during the 2016 campaign.