Is Africa juggling the world’s powers?

In recent years, Africa has demonstrated a willingness to distance itself from Western influence. For instance, when Russia invaded Ukraine, 17 African countries chose to abstain from a UN vote condemning the invasion. In a notable diplomatic move last year, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, along with three other African presidents, spearheaded a peace mission to Russia and Ukraine at a time when the West declined negotiations with Russia.

Additionally, South Africa’s open defiance against Israel’s actions in Gaza, presented in the International Court of Justice, was viewed as a bold stance, although the United States criticized it as “meritless” and “counter-productive.” Mr. Ramaphosa further engaged in diplomatic dialogues by participating in meetings with the presidents of China, Iran, and Russia within the past eight months.

The facts

African leaders perceive the rise of a multipolar world characterized by transactional international relations, where numerous powers vie for influence. Countries such as Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) present themselves as potential investors, security partners, and allies. In contrast, the United States has shifted its focus away from Africa, being more absorbed in Asian affairs and preoccupied with conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. There is concern that if Donald Trump regains the presidency, this neglect of African issues may persist. Consequently, Africa finds itself adapting to a multipolar world to a greater extent than other regions.

The arguments

This adaptation presents both significant opportunities and serious risks for the continent. Notably, African governments gain more control over their affairs in a multipolar setting. President Macky Sall of Senegal underlined the advantage of having multiple decision-making centers, preventing a single dictate where choices are limited.

The primary opportunity lies in attracting investment, crucial for a continent facing extraordinary economic needs. However, engaging with new partners carries risks, such as the possibility of accumulating bad debt. Moreover, there are heightened political and military dangers, including the potential for autocratic allies to support leaders in overstaying power and facilitating coups. Foreign powers meddling in African affairs can exacerbate conflicts and intensify the destructive impact of wars.

Historical precedents serve as a cautionary reminder. During the Cold War, African leaders enjoyed greater flexibility in choosing their partners, but the outcomes were often unfavourable. For instance, the socialist junta in Ethiopia, the Derg, retained power from 1974 to 1991 with Soviet support, despite a devastating famine. In Congo, Mobutu Sese Seko, a dictator ruling for over three decades, received backing from the CIA. Following the Cold War, American dominance ushered in a period of democratization in Africa, accompanied by reduced conflict. However, economic progress was limited, and Western investment fell short of meeting the continent’s needs. This created openness to China’s involvement in the 2000s, with the Chinese offering tangible support in contrast to mere criticism from the Americans. Now, various powers are presenting alternatives in the evolving geopolitical landscape.

African leaders’ enthusiasm for a multipolar world is most justified from an economic perspective. Approximately half of the 1.2 billion people in sub-Saharan Africa lack access to electricity, and around 400 million cannot obtain clean drinking water. Addressing these challenges requires substantial investments. The World Bank estimates that sub-Saharan Africa needs infrastructure investments equivalent to about 7% of its GDP annually to achieve near-universal access to water and electricity, along with improved roads by 2030. However, the current investments fall short, reaching only about half of the required amount.

Despite potential pitfalls in individual deals and loans, the scale of financing required in Africa makes increased involvement from various countries and institutions a welcome development. Additionally, the continent sees a surge in new commercial partners, with trade increasing notably with some non-Western nations. China has played a leading role in African investment, lending $170 billion from 2000 to 2022, with a focus on infrastructure such as roads, railways, and ports. However, China’s recent economic challenges have led to a significant decrease in lending to Africa. This decline is evident in Chinese loan disbursements in 2022, which were only about 10% of their peak in 2016.

For African leaders, diversifying funding sources becomes even more crucial in light of China’s reduced engagement. This diversification is underway, with Turkish construction firms having completed substantial projects in Africa, amounting to 85 billion USD. Despite the continent’s need for more financial support, African elites believe that Gulf countries, Turkey, and possibly India could contribute significantly. Europe and America, mindful of their interests, are making efforts to reassert themselves, especially in critical mineral resources.

While new financial flows bring opportunities, they also introduce risks, such as corruption and challenges in managing debt. The multipolar world may also face the risk of splitting, particularly amid rising tensions between China and the United States. A divided world could have severe economic consequences for sub-Saharan Africa, jeopardizing more than half of its international trade, according to the IMF.

The potential downsides include democratic backsliding, as leaders may attempt to cling to power with foreign support, as seen in Senegal’s President Macky Sall. Successful coups have increased in the 2020s, with nine occurring in various African countries, backed by powers such as Russia. The resulting political manoeuvring has led to greater insecurity, conflicts, and humanitarian crises, as evidenced by the situation in the Sahel and Sudan.