Is 2024 going to be a grim year?

In Ukraine, a relentless counteroffensive against Russia’s invasion has resulted in a grim stalemate. Simultaneously, a long-standing conflict in the Middle East has escalated into an unprecedented, high-intensity war in the Gaza Strip. A substantial number of Gaza’s residents have been displaced from their homes, around 20,000 Palestinians have lost their lives in a matter of weeks, and a quarter of Gaza’s population is facing severe food shortages, according to the United Nations. The organization has warned that the risk of famine in the territory is escalating daily.

While these two conflicts have dominated global news coverage throughout much of 2023, other crises have been unfolding. Sudan and Myanmar are experiencing devastating civil wars marked by numerous atrocities and reports of war crimes, leading to the collapse of already dysfunctional states and worsening humanitarian crises. Sub-Saharan Africa is grappling with coups and power struggles, while social instability and post-pandemic economic pressures contribute to increased migration worldwide.

Additionally, 2023 is likely to be the hottest year on record, with heatwaves affecting every continent and extreme climatic events occurring globally. Droughts and floods have become more acute, with a particularly shocking moment in September when heavy rains led to dam failures and flash floods, resulting in over 11,000 deaths in northeastern Libya.

Despite facing such calamities, hopes for better news in the new year are dim. There are numerous potential challenges and worsening crises on the horizon for 2024. The conflict in Gaza is approaching a perilous tipping point, with Israeli officials committing to a prolonged campaign. The ongoing fighting is pushing Gaza’s 2.2 million people to the brink, making it the deadliest place in the world for civilians. Humanitarian assistance is desperately needed, but a limited amount is reaching the besieged territory. Calls for a cease-fire and increased relief aid are widespread, but without a halt to hostilities, the war could further convulse the region, involving anti-Israel factions from Lebanon and Syria and potentially leading to an unprecedented flow of Palestinian refugees into Egypt.

In its recently released “emergency watchlist” for the year, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) has identified the conflict in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories as the second most pressing crisis to monitor in 2024. Topping the list is the less-discussed civil war in Sudan, where eight months of clashes between the country’s military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have left over half the population in need of humanitarian aid and forced around 6 million people to flee their homes. The conflict has also led to the closure of thousands of schools, leaving approximately 19 million children without access to education.

The IRC’s report underlined that Sudan has become the world’s largest displacement crisis, hindered by a lack of humanitarian access and funds. The current war’s ethnic, tribal, and regional polarization further jeopardizes the limited access to aid.

Africa dominates the IRC’s list of potential hotspots, with three West African nations, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, affected by military juntas being highlighted. Burkina Faso is grappling with rising Islamist militancy, with renegade factions controlling more than half the country. Mali and Niger face similar dynamics, with growing food insecurity and diminishing foreign aid putting millions at greater risk.

The IRC’s watchlist nations collectively account for 86% of all people in humanitarian need globally. The intersection of political instability in these societies is exacerbated by the impacts of a warming planet, with droughts and climate shocks affecting vulnerable communities. Three decades ago, 44% of conflicts occurred in climate-vulnerable states, and now that figure has risen to 67%.

The uncertainty also extends from Somalia to Afghanistan to Haiti, where the state is on the brink of collapse, dominated by gangs. In Asia, attention is drawn to Taiwan’s upcoming election, where China may provoke tensions. However, the most significant potential conflict could unfold in Myanmar, where a coalition of rebel militias has launched an offensive against the ruling junta, leading to mounting desertions. Despite this, the current trajectory suggests a weakened but still formidable regime in Myanmar, marked by increased violence and heightened uncertainty, rather than an imminent regime collapse on the battlefield.