How US House Speaker Mike Johnson can influence Ukraine’s democracy

Ukraine is facing a dire situation as it struggles to defend its sovereignty and democracy from Russia’s aggression. The country urgently needs more military and economic aid from its Western allies, especially the United States, which has been a key supporter of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

However, the fate of Ukraine’s survival largely depends on US House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has the power to approve or block a bill that would provide $60 billion in aid to Ukraine.

Who is Mike Johnson?

Mike Johnson is a Republican Louisiana congressman who became the house speaker in October 2023, after a chaotic leadership election that saw the previous speaker Kevin McCarthy ousted by his own party.

Johnson, a former lawyer and state legislator, was a compromise candidate who managed to secure the support of the GOP’s moderate and radical factions. He is known for his conservative views on social and fiscal issues, as well as his loyalty to former president Donald Trump, who endorsed him for the speakership.

Why is he reluctant to pass the aid bill?

Johnson has faced a dilemma over the aid bill, which was passed by the Senate in December 2023, with bipartisan support. The bill, known as the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, would authorise $60 billion in military and economic assistance to Ukraine.

The bill would also impose new sanctions on Russia and its allies, and reaffirm the US commitment to NATO and the transatlantic alliance.

The bill has been widely supported by the Biden administration, the Pentagon, the State Department, and the intelligence community, who argue that it is vital to deter Russia from further escalating its aggression against Ukraine and undermining the international order.

However, he is reluctant to bring the bill to the floor for a vote, citing several reasons. First, he has said that he wants to review the bill carefully and ensure that it is in the best interest of the American taxpayers and national security.

Secondly, he has said that he wants to consult with his Republican colleagues and reach a consensus within his party, which is deeply divided over the bill. While some Republicans, such as the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul, have supported the bill and urged Johnson to pass it, others, such as the leader of the House Freedom Caucus Andy Biggs, have opposed the bill and threatened to revolt against Johnson if he passes it.

Johnson’s decision is also influenced by other factors, such as his personal views, his political calculations, and his future ambitions. he is known to be a staunch supporter of Trump, who is opposed to the aid bill and has been sympathetic to Putin.

Johnson may also be wary of alienating his base and his donors, who may share Trump’s isolationist and nationalist ideology, and may resent the US involvement in foreign conflicts.

What are the consequences of his delay?

Johnson’s delay in passing the aid bill has had serious consequences for Ukraine and the region. First, it has emboldened Russia to intensify its military pressure on Ukraine, by deploying more troops, weapons, and equipment along the border, and launching more attacks and provocations in the Donbas region, where a fragile ceasefire has been in place since 2015.

Russia has also increased its propaganda and disinformation campaigns, aimed at undermining Ukraine’s legitimacy and sovereignty and sowing discord and confusion among its allies.

It has damaged the credibility and cohesion of the US and its allies, by creating doubts and divisions over their commitment and solidarity to Ukraine and the region. The US has been seen as unreliable and indecisive, and its leadership and influence have been questioned and challenged.

Some allies, such as Germany and France, have been more inclined to seek dialogue and compromise with Russia, while others, such as Poland and the UK, have been more supportive of Ukraine and more confrontational with Russia.