Global defence spending jumped to $2.2 trillion in 2023

Global defence expenditures surged by 9% to reach a historic $2.2 trillion last year, according to a report from a British military think tank. The report predicts a further increase in 2024, citing Israel’s conflict with Gaza, the Ukraine conflict, and escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.

The global security environment is “highly volatile”

The report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) highlighted additional concerns, such as growing unease in the Arctic, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, apprehensions regarding China, and the emergence of military regimes in Africa’s Sahel region. The report characterizes the current global security environment as “highly volatile,” anticipating a potentially more perilous decade marked by the bold use of military power to assert claims.

The report, compiled annually by the IISS for the past 65 years, underscores the impact of this “era of insecurity” on the global defence-industrial landscape. It notes a reset in the sector, with the United States and Europe increasing production of missiles and ammunition after years of insufficient investment.

The record-breaking global military spending is attributed, in part, to NATO member states’ response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The report reveals that non-US members of the alliance have raised military spending by 32% since Russia’s incursion into Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

The release of the report coincides with recent comments from Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, who stated that he had informed the leader of an unspecified NATO member that he would “encourage” Russia to act freely in their country if they failed to meet financial obligations to the military alliance.

10 NATO members surpassed 2% of the GDP for military spendings

During a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump emphasized the importance of meeting financial commitments, stating, “You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.” The report reveals that ten alliance members achieved the target of spending 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, a notable increase from just two members in 2014. According to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 19 members raised their defence spending last year.

The report highlights that Russia’s actions have revitalized NATO, leading to Finland completing its rapid accession to the alliance in April 2023. As a result, Russia’s border with NATO members has extended by over 1,300 kilometers (800 miles).

In addition, the report draws attention to Iran’s provision of missiles to Houthi rebels in Yemen and drones to Russia, underscoring Tehran’s growing influence in conflict zones. The report also notes China’s enhanced power-projection capacity.

The research and development spendings also increased

The current conflicts not only overlap but also involve a greater number of non-Western countries compared to two decades ago. There is a shift from Western-led military involvement to a broader range of countries participating in conflicts, including Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and others becoming more interventionist and active.

The escalation of defence spending is driven not only by the mounting tensions in Asia, where countries are arming themselves as a deterrent, but also by the surging demand for cutting-edge technologies like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and Global Positioning Systems (GPS).

A significant revelation in the report is that Russia has incurred the loss of around 3,000 main battle tanks during the conflict in Ukraine, approximately equivalent to its active inventory before the full-scale invasion commenced in February 2022. Although Moscow has replenished its forces by bringing 2,000 older tanks out of storage, the Ukrainian government is relying on support from Western nations for the necessary ammunition and weaponry to resist its larger neighbour.

The report notes that the lessons derived from the Ukraine conflict are influencing military planning in other nations. Many countries are recognizing the imperative to augment the production of military hardware and accumulate larger stockpiles, anticipating the possibility of being engaged in a prolonged war.