Everything you need to know about the elections in Senegal

Senegal, boasting a thriving economy, is perceived as a stable and secure nation, a huge achievement in West Africa, where coups, crises, and insurgencies are prevalent. However, President Macky Sall disrupted any notion of a routine election. He took to state television to announce the cancellation of the vote, citing corruption in the approval process of candidates by the constitutional court. Amidst the ensuing uproar, President Sall reversed his decision, declaring that the election would proceed on March 24, just nine days before his term concludes. In a bold move, he also released the prominent opposition candidate and the leader of the opposition party from imprisonment.

Who are the candidates?

The candidate representing the ruling party is Amadou Ba, a former prime minister. Bassirou Diomaye Faye, recently released from jail, is widely viewed as the primary challenger, backed by the polarizing politician Ousmane Sonko. Additionally, there are 17 other candidates, including former mayors and prime ministers.

However, notable for their absence from the race are Ousmane Sonko and Karim Wade. Sonko, Sall’s primary opponent, is disqualified due to a conviction for corrupting a minor, stemming from a scandal involving allegations of rape by a young massage parlour employee. Despite his critics, many young Senegalese view Sonko as a voice of dissent against authority, rallying in his support despite the potential danger from law enforcement. Sonko, along with Faye, was released from jail on Thursday night.

Karim Wade, the son of former President Abdoulaye Wade, who attempted to retain power in 2012 but was defeated by Sall, is also ineligible to run. Wade, who holds dual French-Senegalese citizenship, is barred from candidacy as he did not renounce his French citizenship upon submitting his bid. This issue triggered the initial controversy that led to Sall’s decision to cancel the election.

When we will know the results?

The economy looms large as a significant concern for many Senegalese citizens, with a majority citing it as poor and identifying its management as the government’s most pressing challenge. Despite economic growth, over 36% of the population lives below the poverty line.

Unemployment, particularly among young people, is also a critical issue, with nearly a third of them without jobs. Consequently, many are looking to migrate to Europe or America in hopes of better opportunities. Some opt for perilous journeys by boat to the Canary Islands, traverse hazardous desert routes toward the Mediterranean, or, more recently, navigate indirect paths via plane, bus, or foot to Central America.

Following the election scheduled for next Sunday, preliminary results from the first round are expected to emerge about a week later. However, many analysts anticipate a runoff election. In the event of a runoff, as per the constitutional council, President Sall has pledged to vacate office by April 2, with the head of the national assembly, Amadou Mame Diop, poised to assume interim leadership duties.

Who is likely to win?

Ba, who stepped down as prime minister to concentrate on what may be one of the shortest political campaigns, has one of the first chances to win. Similarly, Faye, though less familiar to the public, has a good chance of winning primarily due to the endorsement of Sonko.

Neither Ba nor Faye enjoys widespread popularity in Senegal, and neither is anticipated to win by a significant margin. However, if the election heads to a runoff, analysts suggest that the choice will likely come down to these two candidates.