Candidates fights against corruption and inequality in Panama’s presidential race

On Sunday, eight Panamanian candidates are vying for the position occupied by outgoing President Laurentino Cortizo, whose office is limited to a single five-year term at a time. Foremost among the presidential hopefuls is Jose Raul Mulino, a former security minister who stepped into the race to replace embattled ex-President Ricardo Martinelli.

The former president was previously the frontrunner, until a 10-year prison sentence for money laundering rendered his campaign illegal under Panamanian law.

Mulino, Martinelli’s former running mate, now leads the race in his stead. An April poll from the research agency Gallup places him at the front of the pack, with 29% of the voters’ support. Other contenders include an array of high-ranking government officials. Second in the running, for instance, is Martín Torrijos, another former president, with 14% of voters backing him.

Even the current vice president, José Gabriel Carrizo, is in the race, though opinion polls show him lagging with only 5% support. All but one of the candidates are considered conservative.

Polls shows corruption is the main concern

Gallup found that corruption was the main concern driving Panamanians to the polls this election cycle, with 57% of respondents identifying it as the primary issue affecting the country. The nonprofit Transparency International ranks Panama among the bottom half of all countries in its corruption index. And in 2015, a United Nations official estimated that the country loses 1% of its gross domestic product (GDP), approximately $520m, each year due to corrupt practices.

But while all eight presidential candidates have pledged to stamp out corruption, some have faced suspicions of malfeasance themselves.

One candidate, lawyer and former judge Zulay Rodriguez, is currently under investigation for money laundering and misappropriating 66kg (146 pounds) of gold from a client.

Torrijos, meanwhile, has previously faced scrutiny for his ties to the Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht, which was accused of bribing officials across Latin America in exchange for beneficial contracts.

Experts say the institutional corruption in Panama has a direct bearing on the results of the election. In a 2019 report, Transparency International estimated that 23% of Panamanians had been offered some form of bribe in exchange for their vote. Part of the problem stems from the wealth gap between Panamanians. Poverty drives some citizens to seek favours from politicians.

Despite Panama’s low inflation rate and sustained economic growth, the World Bank considers it to be the third most unequal country in Latin America, behind Brazil and Colombia.

While the economy grew at a rate of 7.3% last year, that growth was uneven, with 12.9% of Panamanians continuing to live in poverty on an income of $6.85 a day or less. Unemployment likewise is improving, with the World Bank indicating the joblessness rate sits at 7.4%, down from more than 18% in 2020. Unemployment is above 50% among young people.

While general unemployment has been in decline since the pandemic, almost half of the workforce does not have a contract. Workers are instead forced to take informal jobs with few protections and little stability. That also means fewer workers are contributing to public funds through payroll deductions. Yet, critics have pointed out that the eight presidential candidates have been hesitant to address the entrenched fiscal issues Panama faces.

Climate change is an issue for young voters

Climate change has remained a prominent issue in Sunday’s elections, especially for young voters who comprise nearly half of Panama’s electorate.

Along the coast, rising sea levels have endangered Indigenous groups like the Guna, whose members have seen their island homes submerged by yearly floods. El Niño weather patterns, meanwhile, have heightened heatwaves and contributed to an extreme, months-long drought that began in 2023. Water scarcity has become a pressing issue in the country. According to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL), about 5% of Panama’s population lacks access to basic water and sanitation services.

The drought is also causing commerce to suffer. The Panama Canal is a crucial international shipping route, allowing boats to cut across the country and travel between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. But the canal requires a steady water level for ships to pass through its locks and chambers. With the drought wreaking havoc on those water levels, the canal has had to cut back on its traffic. Canal administrators have estimated that the bottleneck will cost them up to $700m in revenue losses.

The next president will have to solve a lot of issues

The experts warn that whoever wins Sunday’s election will face an uphill battle in addressing Panama’s myriad issues.

One of the challenges will be rallying members of the National Assembly. A record number of independent candidates, 127, are running to serve in the legislature during Sunday’s election, without party allegiances to unify them once in office. They are ideologically very diverse, going from left to far right.

Some of the presidential candidates are also seeking to overhaul the constitution if they take power, in an effort to extinguish the country’s corruption. The constitutional reform has widespread popular support.