How will the entry of new countries into BRICS reshape the global order?

Five countries have accepted joining the intergovernmental organization. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Iran are the most recent nations to join the intergovernmental organization. How will this new alliance impact Western economic and geopolitical dominance?

The facts

The BRICS bloc, founded in 2009 and named after its original member countries Brazil, Russia, India, China has experienced a significant expansion.

According to South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates formally acknowledged that they will be joining the BRICS group following invitations they received last year.

Argentina has rejected to join when the new President Javier Milei overturned his predecessor’s application for membership after taking office.

“With respect to the BRICS confirmations, five out of the six have confirmed. That is Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia, Iran … and Egypt. Argentina has written to indicate that they will not act on this successful application by the previous administration to become full members of BRICS, and we accept their decision,” Pandor announced at a news conference on Wednesday.

About 30 more countries have written letters of interest to be a part of the group. And foreign ministers of the BRICS countries are creating a model known as the BRICS partner country to accommodate the 17 countries that were denied membership.

The arguments

The countries under the BRICS intend to aggressively push for change in the order of world’s economic structure with the primary objective to dominate global market while boosting economic influence.

Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar in November 2023 said the West African country which is also continent’s largest economy plans to become a member of BRICS within the next two years.

The group is also working on a framework that will let members conduct inter-BRICS trade using their national currencies. According to the minister, the group considered the current international payment system, which is primarily centered on dollars, to be “unfair and costly.”

Together, the BRICS countries lay claim to 42 percent of the global population, 30 percent of the global landmass and 24 percent of global economic output.

Although it is early days with new countries joining, BRICS, as a collection of major emerging economies, have the power to affect the current global order, but whether this influence will be substantial will depend on several variables.

On economic influence, the combined population, land area, and GDP of the BRICS nations account for a sizeable share of the global total.

Their collaboration and economic expansion can threaten the hegemony of established economic powers. The creation of organizations such as the New Development Bank is indicative of an effort to offer substitutes for the current global financial institutions.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, for instance, are among the wealthiest countries by GDP per capita. Despite global economic downturns and uncertainties, they have continued to experience economic growth.

According to the IMF, Saudi Arabia’s economy plunged by 8.7% in 2022. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook report released in October 2023, however, lowered the GDP growth for Saudi Arabia or 2023 to 0.8% and estimated growth of 4% in this year.

The World Bank also predicted in a Gulf Economic Update (GEU) study that the UAE’s non-oil GDP growth would reach 4.5% in 2023, propelled by robust results in the real estate, manufacturing, tourism, transportation, and construction sectors as well as higher capital spending.

Again, the political, ideological, and cultural roots of the BRICS countries are different. Even while they have similar objectives, their internal conflicts might restrict how much they can all work together to upend the current global order.

Political Influence cannot be overlooked. Due to their strategic location, the BRICS countries have the potential to affect world affairs. However, their capacity to put out a united face on important issues, together with their diplomatic and political initiatives, will determine how much of a threat they are to the current global order.

To better represent the interests of emerging economies, BRICS has pushed for changes to be made to organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF. Even though these reforms have not moved quickly, successful adjustments could lead to a more equitable international system.

It is crucial to remember that the international system is dynamic and that shifts in the political, economic, and social spheres can have an impact on any nation or group’s power. BRICS has advanced significantly in several areas but projecting the future trajectory of world politics is difficult.

It will be up to BRICS to overcome obstacles, stay together, and deal with global concerns head-on whether they can upend the current system or help it evolve.