Billions to face unbearable heat and floods in the next 20 years – New report reveals

A recent report from researchers at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo has raised alarms about the growing threat of extreme weather events due to climate change. According to the findings, nearly 75% of the global population—equivalent to about 5.6 billion people—may face severe weather disruptions such as intense rainfall and soaring temperatures if carbon emissions remain unchecked. “The changes are expected to be ‘clear and rapid,’ especially in regions including Spain, Italy, Morocco, Peru, India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia,” stated the report. Even in a scenario where the world successfully reduces emissions, over 1.5 billion people could still experience life-threatening heat and flooding.

The study used a unique approach by combining four major climate simulations to examine potential shifts in peak rainfall and temperatures over the next two decades. Unlike previous research, which often focuses on individual countries, this study emphasizes regional changes. Dr. Carley Iles, the lead author, explained to the Daily Mail, “We focus on regional changes, due to their increased relevance to the experience of people and ecosystems compared with the global mean.” This broader perspective allows the researchers to identify large geographic areas that could be significantly affected by climate shifts, thereby offering a clearer picture of how societies and natural systems might cope.

Under scenarios where greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed, regions such as the Mediterranean, Northwestern and Southern America, and Eastern Asia are likely to face “sustained, unprecedented rates of change” for at least two decades. The study highlights that rapid and severe changes in weather patterns could affect about 70% of the global population. Even places like the UK and Northern Europe, where temperature changes are expected to be minimal, could still experience significant increases in rainfall, signaling that no part of the world is immune from the impacts of climate change.

The researchers also caution that some effects of climate change might already be irreversible, regardless of efforts to cut emissions. Co-author Dr. Bjørn Samset noted, “The main takeaway is really how quickly weather conditions will change around the world over the coming two decades, regardless of cuts in emissions.” This sentiment underscores the urgency for immediate and substantial action to mitigate future risks. Even if emissions are reduced rapidly to meet the Paris Agreement targets, approximately 1.6 billion people, particularly in regions like South Asia and the Arabian Peninsula, will still face dramatic changes.

Compounding the challenge, some measures intended to combat climate change could paradoxically lead to more extreme weather. For example, reducing air pollution, which has the effect of reflecting some solar radiation back into space, could inadvertently cause localized temperature spikes and intense rainy seasons as more sunlight reaches the Earth’s surface. Dr. Laura Wilcox from the University of Reading warns, “Rapid clean-up of air pollution, mostly over Asia, leads to accelerated co-located increases in warm extremes and influences the Asian summer monsoons.” Thus, while necessary for public health, such actions could complicate efforts to stabilize the climate, potentially exacerbating the very problems they seek to alleviate.