Why is Chad experiencing increasing turbulence leading up to elections?

Intense gunfire broke out in the capital of Chad, N’Djamena, last week, shortly after the announcement of a highly anticipated election date in the central African nation. The Chadian government claimed that its security forces repelled an attack by members of the opposition Socialist Party Without Borders (PSF), who allegedly initiated the assault on state security forces following a dispute with a party member.

PSF leaders refuted these allegations through Facebook posts, but local newspapers reported additional gunfire and a potential bombing at the party’s headquarters. Local authorities revealed that a significant number of people had been either injured or killed, including PSF leader Yaya Dillo.

Internet services in the country have remained disconnected since Wednesday, heightening the prevailing uncertainty. Chad has grappled with enduring political tensions stemming from evolving alliances and familial and tribal connections within the political elite. The situation has been exacerbated by uncertainties arising from the demise of the longtime ruler, Idriss Deby, in 2021, and the subsequent appointment of his son, Mahamat, as the new leader.

One opposition party leader was killed in the attack

Known by the name Yaya Dillo, he was connected to the Deby father-son pair, with conflicting reports suggesting he was either Mahamat’s cousin or nephew. Formerly a member of the ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) party established by the elder Deby, Dillo defected and established the opposition PSF party. A vocal critic of both Debys, he became a target of government raids. On February 28, 2021, precisely two years before the recent attack, Chadian forces attempted to apprehend the politician at his N’Djamena residence for unclear reasons, resulting in the death of his mother during the assault.

On Wednesday, authorities accused Dillo’s PSF of assaulting the headquarters of the National Agency for State Security (ANSE) in retaliation for the earlier arrest and killing of PSF member Ahmed Torabi. Officials claimed Torabi had attempted to assassinate Supreme Court President Samir Adam Annour. Contrarily, PSF leaders asserted that they were fired upon while attempting to retrieve Torabi’s body from the ANSE building.

It seems personal rivalries between Deby and Dillo may have intensified, especially after Saleh Deby Itno, the younger brother of Idriss Deby, defected to Dillo’s PSF in January, indicating a further fracturing of the ruling family. Deby Itno is reportedly in custody following the chaos on Wednesday. Analysts are also pointing out that ethnic tensions over support for the warring Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan could have contributed to the rift between the two. The ruling family belongs to the Zaghawa group, extending into Sudan’s Darfur, and has faced attacks from RSF-allied militias based on ethnicity. While Deby supports the RSF, Dillo opposes this stance.

Chad seemed calm prior to the week’s violence

Prior to the outbreak of violence on Wednesday, Chad seemed to be gradually emerging from months of uncertainty and tense political dynamics, at least on the surface. Just hours before the eruption of gunfire and bombing, the election agency announced the scheduling of presidential elections for May 6, a demand that many Chadians and opposition parties had been advocating for over the past two years.

Interim President Mahamat Deby assumed office in April 2021, following his father’s demise while combating a rebel group in the north. Critics have characterized his ascent as an unconstitutional power grab. Despite facing challenges to his legitimacy, the 39-year-old leader, with the backing of military loyalists, swiftly established a transitional council and positioned himself at the helm. He also proposed a constitutional referendum and outlined plans for presidential elections within 18 months, by September 2022. These actions appeared to be an attempt to appease numerous opposition parties that were active but had limited influence in the preceding government. Nevertheless, the opposition condemned Deby, viewing his actions as tantamount to orchestrating a palace coup.

Facing pressure from both the opposition and various Chadian rebel groups that had been vying for control of N’Djamena for years, Deby called for a national dialogue and signed a peace agreement in Qatar in August 2022. Several opposition groups, notably the Transformers party led by Succes Masra, a former chief economist at the African Development Bank, boycotted the agreement. With no significant opposition at the negotiations, Deby announced a further delay in the September 2023 elections, shifting them to October 2024.

This decision sparked street protests in N’Djamena on October 20, 2022, led by Masra and other opposition figures, demanding immediate elections. The capital saw a heavy military presence with tanks and soldiers wearing balaclavas. The army responded with lethal force, resulting in between 50 and 200 casualties on what is now referred to as Black Thursday. Hundreds of individuals were detained in the remote Koro Toro prison in the hostile desert. Masra, the economist and opposition leader, sought refuge in the United States.

The next elections won’t be fair, analysts predict

In December 2023, Chadians voted affirmatively in a referendum proposing constitutional changes. These changes included the establishment of local councils to decentralize power, a reduction in the presidential term limit from six to five years, a decrease in the minimum age for the president from 40 to 35 years, and the enhancement of the electoral agency’s independence from the government.

Despite the government asserting a 64% voter turnout, many opposition members and analysts dismissed the referendum as a farce, viewing it as President Deby’s strategy to solidify his government’s legitimacy.

Succes Masra surprised many by returning to participate in the referendum and subsequently accepting an appointment as prime minister on January 1. Amid the recent violence, Masra, once a government critic, expressed support for the regime, stating in a post on social media, “I would like to bow to all the dead because their blood is the flowing Chadian blood and express my total and unconditional support to the Head of State, our defence and security forces and our republican institutions.” However, this stance faced criticism from many.

Analysts noted that Deby’s alliance with Masra mirrors his father’s tactics for maintaining power over three decades. While an insurrection by the PSF is possible, Deby may also be employing repressive methods inherited from his father, including potentially orchestrating events to eliminate political rivals. Chadian politics during Idriss Deby Itno’s rule were marked by disappearances, a potentially staged coup in 2013 to eliminate political rivals, and manipulative practices ensuring the president and his party’s victory.

Despite public denouncements from several opposition parties regarding the ruling party’s selection of Deby as its candidate for the upcoming May elections, fewer critical voices may pave the way for an easier victory for Deby at the polls. Political analysts suggested that truly free and fair elections were never likely, predicting a resounding win for Deby and the likelihood of offering lucrative government positions to opposition members to maintain control.