How is the next European Parliament going to look like?

Every five years, mainstream European politicians express concern about the surge of radicals and populists in anticipation of the European election. Historically, this anxiety tends to fade as the traditional center-left and center-right factions, instrumental in building the European Union, form alliances that keep more extremist parties in check.

However, caution is warranted this time around. In 2024, the surge of right-wing support in polls appears more substantial and audacious, with predictions suggesting that nationalist right and far right factions could secure nearly a quarter of seats in the European Parliament come June.

The far-right group set to become the third group in European Parliament

Even if the center-right, currently favoured to lead in the election, refrains from forging a coalition with increasingly influential far right parties, there remains a considerable possibility that these parties could, for the first time, exert influence over Europe’s policy agenda. This influence could pose a threat to the EU’s fundamental values regarding the rule of law and human rights, potentially hindering or even overturning significant environmental and climate legislation.

The far-right Identity & Democracy (ID) grouping in the European Parliament, currently the sixth largest out of seven, could gain 40 seats in June, potentially reaching 98 lawmakers and claiming the third position, currently held by the Liberals. Moreover, if the current fifth largest grouping, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group with 67 members, including Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) and Italy’s ruling Brothers of Italy, grows by the anticipated 18 seats, it could surpass both the Greens and the liberals to become the fourth largest group in Parliament.

Factoring in the 12 members of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s FIDESZ party, who are without a political home, the ECR and ID groups could collectively hold 25% of seats in the next European Parliament. Hungary’s FIDESZ MEPs are expected to join Meloni’s right-wing ECR group after the election, as announced by Orbán, potentially bolstering the ranks of the ECR. The Polish nationalists, dominant in the group since the departure of the British conservatives, are open to this move.

The increase will create challenges for the lead European parties

The rise in right-wing representation could complicate the parliamentary approval process for key figures. A December poll showed that hardline anti-immigration parties are leading or closely trailing in nearly a dozen European countries, including France and Germany.

Over the decades, voters across Europe have shifted away from mainstream parties amid various crises, including economic downturns, refugee influxes, terrorist attacks, and energy challenges. Despite these challenges, mainstream parties have consistently fended off threats in each election.

Analysts warned about the far right winning indirectly if center-right groups adopt their rhetoric and policies, particularly on issues related to identity, immigration, and Islam. While centrist groups may still hold a majority based on current projections, the potential influence of the far right could grow, even if the majority is 30 seats smaller. With four months until the election, uncertainties remain.

Far right figures in Brussels are eagerly anticipating increased influence, especially on topics like immigration and climate laws, as they eye the formation of coalitions that shape legislative decisions in the EU. The European Parliament has traditionally prevented far right members from holding influential positions, but key players are strategizing to divide main groups by pulling the center-right away from the Socialists and Liberals.

EPP will not ally with the far right

EPP chief Manfred Weber underlined the party’s commitment to three principles: partners must be pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine, and pro-rule of law. Despite this, the EPP has faced criticism for engaging with right-wing parties, prompting concerns from other political groups.

While Weber rejected the idea of working with far right parties such as Poland’s Law and Justice Party (PiS), Alternative for Germany (AfD), and France’s National Rally (RN), there are indications that some within the EPP may consider such collaborations without formal coalition agreements.

Far-right MEP Maximilian Krah, leading AfD’s list, expressed a desire to break the “cordon sanitaire,” referring to the long-standing principle where democratic parties refrain from cooperating with anti-democratic forces. He emphasized constructive engagement rather than destructive intentions.

However, there are divisions within far-right groups. AfD MEPs in Germany, for example, have internal disagreements on ideological grounds. The Identity and Democracy group, being composed of nationalists, is inherently decentralized, allowing each national party autonomy in decision-making. Efforts to merge the ID group with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Orbán’s MEPs failed during the current parliamentary term, mark a potential game changer.

Despite challenges and internal divisions, the trend of far right influence is perceived as having lasting consequences in the long run, suggesting a potential shift in European politics and the emergence of a new political dynamic in the European landscape.