Taylor Swift’s potential influence on the US election: A game-changer?

In a few months, the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States will have their conventions and formally reveal their nominees for the presidential election.

Pop singer Taylor Swift has been at the forefront of discussions over whether or not her influence is likely to alter voters’ decisions as America approaches the primary polls in nine months.

Experts predict that Swift’s support might change the political landscape in the US, but will “Miss America” be the catalyst?

The facts

The megastar of pop music has captured the hearts of thousands of young Americans, including millennials. Actually, according to statistics from multiple US polls, between 60 and 80 percent of Americans think favourably of Taylor and the majority of them identify as “Swifties.”

Taylor Swift’s year was 2023. Time Magazine honoured her Person of the Year. During that period, her store produced over $1 billion in revenue. Because of her enormous influence, Justin Trudeau “begged” her to come to Canada.

Although the Republican primary is still ongoing, a general election confrontation between two rivals is beginning to emerge, with Nikki Haley seemingly lacking a clear path to victory.

Thus, the contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be unlike any other in modern history since it is a rematch between the current president and his immediate predecessor.

In 2020, Swift endorsed Biden’s presidential bid and this largely contributed to Biden’s win over Trump.

The arguments

US President Joe Biden had a difficult year. Economic difficulties, two wars, and historically low ratings. However, the US president is not giving up and needs a lifeline to ensure a prosperous 2024 in order to stay in office.

That lifeline, many presume, is Taylor Swift as she has an incredible influence on a majority of the American population. She is a cultural phenomenon as the biggest pop star of her generation. But can she also influence elections?

Another belief Taylor Swift’s influence could be a major deciding factor for this year’s election is also based on her quite fresh relationship with NFL star, Travis Kelce.

The NFL-effect

Seventy percent of Americans, according to a Marist Poll, perceived Taylor Swift’s influence on the NFL positively in December 2023, with a majority favoring her overall, while 30% held a different opinion.

“Her favourability rating is at a level that elected officials can only dream of reaching. As TIME magazine’s person of the year, Swift’s influence on the entertainment industry has been long documented. So, it’s not surprising that she would be just as impactful for the NFL,” Stephanie Calvano, director of Data Science and Technology at the Marist Institute for Public Opinion said.

Not only is Taylor Swift a pop sensation. She is a cultural icon. Younger America is beckoning to her. Her supporters pay close attention when she speaks.

In September 2023, she made a post on social media urging her followers to register to vote. The subsequent events were unparalleled. The number of registrants increased. It’s reported to be the highest number of registrations since 2020.

Is Swift going to publicly endorse Biden?

Thus, a straightforward endorsement may work wonders for Biden, particularly in the swing states, as Taylor is incredibly well-liked by both Democrats and Independents.

On the flip side, subtle messages from Republicans are made to suggest Taylor Swift is part of a conspiracy to keep Biden in the White House. They are concerned she could help sway the general election in favour of President Joe Biden.

Swift seems to be caught up in a “cultural war,” but Republicans run the risk of driving moderate voters away from Donald Trump by consistently inflaming the public and mainstream celebrities.

According to a YouGov survey, she was not well-liked by 2020 voters. It’s interesting to note that quite a number of them had their minds changed and gave her positive ratings 3 years later.

Research by political science professor David Jackson from Bowling Green State University suggests that a celebrity endorsement can lead to political division. Republicans, in particular, strongly opposed the idea that a liberal celebrity supporting a presidential candidate would enhance popularity, instead asserting it could have the opposite effect.

Despite celebrities influencing public discourse, the overall election outcome is shaped by the collective choices of millions of voters, with celebrity influence being just one component of the broader political landscape.

It’s worth noting that the landscape might be evolving, as no celebrity as prominent as Taylor Swift has previously endorsed a candidate in elections.