How the US is preparing for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan

During the joint military exercises conducted by US and Australian troops last summer, which included activities such as amphibious landings, ground combat, and air operations, the focus was on strengthening defence cooperation against China’s growing military aspirations.

However, behind the scenes, the high-profile Talisman Sabre drills served another discreet purpose for US war planners – the creation of new stockpiles of military equipment left in Australia after the exercises concluded in August.

Concern in the US over recent declarations from China

With increasing concerns about the possibility of Chinese President Xi Jinping ordering military action to seize Taiwan, the US military is reassessing its own readiness, particularly in the crucial area of logistics. The equipment amassed from Talisman Sabre, including approximately 330 vehicles, trailers, and 130 containers stored in Bandiana, southeastern Australia, had not been publicly disclosed by the US military until now. This equipment is sufficient to support about three logistics companies, each consisting of 500 or more soldiers focused on ensuring the supply chain reaches fighters. This surplus materiel is deemed essential for future drills, responding to natural disasters, or deployment in an actual conflict.

The American military logistics in the Pacific is considered a significant vulnerability in any potential conflict over Taiwan. US war simulations indicate that China may target jet fuel supplies or refuelling ships, thereby disabling US air and sea power without engaging heavily armed fighter jets or sinking the American fleet of surface warships.

New US-logistics hub in the Pacific

In response to the concerns over China’s potential military actions, the United States is working to establish military logistics hubs across the region, including warehouses in Australia.

Critics argue that Washington’s logistics network remains too centralized, emphasizing a lack of sufficient funding and urgency in addressing the issue. The U.S. military’s logistics branch, U.S. Transportation Command (TransCom), has successfully transported significant equipment to the Ukrainian military in its conflict with Russia. However, supporting Taiwan, located approximately 100 miles from China’s coast, presents significantly greater challenges.

While the U.S. has not officially committed to intervening if China attacks Taiwan, President Joe Biden has hinted at deploying U.S. troops to defend the island. Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered military readiness to take Taiwan by 2027, although analysts perceive this as a motivational rather than an invasion timeline.

A senior U.S. military official, speaking anonymously, highlighted the prioritization of ammunition, fuel, food, and spare parts for equipment in the Indo-Pacific region, with Taiwan contingency planning already underway. Concerns were raised about potential shortages in missile defences for Navy ships during a major conflict. In an April war game, China simulated an amphibious assault on Taiwan, incorporating extensive air and missile strikes against US bases in the region, including the naval base on Japan’s Okinawa island and the Yokota Air Base in western Tokyo.

In response to these vulnerabilities, the US military is exploring more secure locations, such as Australia, for stockpiling equipment. Cooperation is also expanding with partners in the Pacific, including the Philippines and Japan. The Biden administration announced plans in July to establish an interim logistics center in Bandiana, Australia, aiming to create a lasting logistics support area in Queensland.

Rethinking the logistics strategy

There has been a notable shift in the US military’s strategic thinking, moving away from decades of confidence in the security of its logistics bases. Historically, the US did not face significant threats to its bases, allowing for the adoption of an efficient “just-in-time” logistics model akin to private-sector manufacturing. This approach favoured the creation of mega-bases, such as Ramstein Air Base in Germany, which were deemed safe from Taliban and Islamic State attacks.

However, the prospect of conflict with China has raised concerns about the vulnerability of mega bases, leading to a reassessment of logistics strategies. In response to this risk, there is a move toward a more costly but resilient approach that involves dispersing US stockpiles and pre-positioning supplies across the region. America is moving from a “just in time” to a “just in case” model.

This shift is reminiscent of measures taken in Europe after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, where the US pre-positioned stocks and invested in bases and airfields for potential use by deploying troops.

Another significant challenge is the aging fleet of US transport ships designed to carry heavy cargo, with an average age of 44 years and some vessels surpassing 50 years.