Will Zaluzhnyi’s replacement solve Ukraine’s battlefield woes?

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appointment of Oleksandr Syrskyi as the new head of Ukraine’s armed forces, following the dismissal of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has sparked various conversations about the future of the struggling Ukrainian army. With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, this action represents the most significant reorganization of the top military brass to date.

The facts

According to Zelenskyy’s statement on X, it was time for changes in the military leadership. President Zelenskyy expressed gratitude to Valerii Zaluzhnyi for his two years of service in defending Ukraine, and the two discussed potential members of the renewed leadership of the Ukrainian armed forces. Zelenskyy proposed that General Zaluzhnyi remain part of the team.

On Thursday, the new leadership group of the armed forces will assume power. Zelenskyy stated that the new military leadership has been tasked with devising a plan this year to repel Russian forces. He emphasized the need for “working rotation systems” and a fresh strategy for recruitment and mobilization in Ukraine.

Some opinion polls suggest that Zaluzhnyi was more popular than the president, and thus, removing the immediate past chief of the army from his leadership position may lead to a decline in public perception of the Ukrainian army.

The arguments

General Zaluzhnyi was selected over more senior officers by Zelenskyy in 2021. As a commander, he had previously demonstrated his competence in combat against pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine starting in 2014.

There had been “deepening speculation” for several weeks regarding conflicts between Zelenskyy and his top soldiers, “especially over the conduct of the war,” as reported by Al Jazeera.

“Zaluzhnyi is a challenging figure to remove; he is regarded as a military hero and could pose a political threat to Zelenskyy in the future,” it added.

Among his achievements as army chief, General Zaluzhnyi deceived Russia in the summer of 2022, leading to the reclamation of territory around Northeastern Kharkiv by exploiting weaknesses in Russian defenses in that region.

Ukrainians are divided regarding President Zelenskyy’s decision, with some expressing disappointment. A poll revealed disagreement with the “sudden and drastic” move. Some believe Zaluzhnyi is crucial for a Ukrainian victory, emphasizing the importance of success regardless of changes in leadership.

Ukraine is currently facing challenges with both manpower and weapons. Additionally, more assistance from Ukraine’s primary source has been delayed due to political deadlock in the United States.

There’s also concern that Zaluzhnyi’s departure might cause unwelcome disruption, potentially straining relations between the Ukrainian army and politicians and increasing unease among Kyiv’s Western partners.

Zaluzhnyi is reported to have established close ties with numerous military chiefs in the West. Though leading a country and an army during a conflict is challenging, experts describe the general as “charismatic and popular,” making him difficult to replace.

In Avdiivka, Ukraine has constructed several defenses, including a network of tunnels and concrete bunkers. Despite suffering significant casualties and equipment losses, Russian forces have gradually progressed since October.

However, for the past two years, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who succeeded Zaluzhnyi, has also been acting as the commander in the East. It is anticipated that his new role will be equally demanding.