Will Trump’s hush money trial have an impact on his candidacy?

Former US President Donald Trump is facing his first criminal trial in New York, charged with hush money payments reportedly paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels to conceal extramarital rumours during the 2016 campaign.

This is not the first time Trump has been convicted.  The question is, will this make any difference when it comes to Trump’s 2024 presidential candidacy?

The facts

Prosecutors believe that Trump, through his lawyer Michael Cohen, paid Daniels, Karen McDougal, and a Trump Tower doorman to hush their accusations of extramarital encounters, breaching federal campaign finance regulations by hiding the payments as legal expenses.

Trump is now facing 34 felony counts of falsifying business documents in a New York state criminal prosecution.

Judge Juan Merchan is presiding over the case, and a 12-member jury will assess Trump’s guilt and any fines.

The trial is likely to last six to eight weeks, and obtaining impartial jurors may be difficult due to the case’s high prominence. The trial will not be televised due to New York state restrictions; however, images and recordings may be permitted before or after the proceedings.

Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal, Michael Cohen, and David Pecker are scheduled to appear as key witnesses in the lawsuit.

Trump dismisses the allegations, claiming that the payments were made to protect his family, not to influence the election. If convicted, Trump could face up to four years in prison on each offence, but fines and probation are also options.

The arguments

The trial raises concerns about the influence on Trump’s 2024 presidential candidature. While he remains popular among Republican primary voters, a conviction may change public opinion and jeopardise his ability to campaign effectively.

Trump’s legal team faces the problem of defending against many criminal cases, each with its own set of accusations and evidence. The outcome of the hush money trial may have an impact on the proceedings in other instances in which Trump is involved.

The defense tactic

Then there’s Trump’s defense tactic of framing the charges as politically motivated, pointing out the connection of law and politics in high-profile trials involving public individuals. The outcome of the trial could influence political perceptions of accountability and justice.

Analysts say Trump’s actions during the trial, notably his amount of remorse and cooperation, may influence public perception of his character and leadership abilities. A conviction might harm his reputation and impact voter decisions in future elections.

An interrupted campaign?

Trump’s court appearances may interrupt his campaign schedule and hamper his capacity to communicate with voters. Balancing legal requirements and campaign commitments poses logistical hurdles for the Republican contender.

In retrospect, the trial represents a watershed moment in US history since it is the first time a former president has faced criminal charges. The trial’s outcome may establish legal precedents and influence future interpretations of campaign finance regulations and presidential accountability.

Republican support

Regardless of the legal challenges, polls show that the majority of Republican primary voters still accept Trump as their party’s nominee. However, a conviction could splinter party loyalties and change the dynamics of the 2024 presidential election.

Delay tactics

Trump’s legal team may use delay tactics, such as appeals and procedural manoeuvres, to prolong the trial and defer any potential penalties. This move could complicate the trial’s timeline and have an influence on Trump’s candidature.