Why is there an “India Out” campaign in Bangladesh?

Amid accusations of Indian involvement in national elections, there is a growing appeal for a boycott of Indian goods in Bangladesh.

Shop owners in Dhaka no longer want to sell Indian products, citing support for YouTube videos advocating a boycott of Indian goods.

The facts

Anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh has been simmering for the past decade, escalating with public displays like celebrations in Dhaka following India’s loss in the Cricket World Cup final last year. After the recent elections in Bangladesh, where Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured a fourth term amidst opposition boycotts, a significant “India Out” campaign emerged, alleging Indian interference in Bangladeshi politics.

The Bangladeshi diaspora and opposition groups have propelled this anti-India movement, calling for boycotts of Indian products. This movement shares similarities with campaigns in the Maldives, where Mohamed Muizzu leveraged anti-India sentiment to win the presidential election.

In Dhaka, the campaign unfolded against the backdrop of India’s historically strong ties with Hasina’s government and strained relations with the opposition, leading many to believe that India favoured maintaining the status quo.

Exiled Bangladeshi physician Pinaki Bhattacharya, who fled alleged government harassment in 2018, has become a key figure in the growing social media movement accusing India of interfering in Bangladesh’s recent elections to support Hasina. Through his more than two million followers on social media, Bhattacharya initiated the #BoycottIndia campaign in mid-January, urging supporters to join “this monumental endeavour.” His call, emphasizing love of homeland and determination to break free from perceived shackles, resonated with thousands.

The arguments

The anti-India movement has gained momentum online, fueled by user-generated content. Images of crossed-out Indian products, such as milk and butter, are circulating, along with tips on identifying barcodes to boycott these goods.

State Minister of Information and Broadcasting Mohammad A Arafat, a lawmaker from the ruling Awami League, dismissed worries about foreign interference in Bangladesh’s politics. He pointed out that the United States also showed interest in Bangladesh’s elections, implementing a visa restriction policy based on the outcome. Arafat underlined that India officially considered Bangladesh’s election an internal matter and had no influence on it.

Awami League’s general secretary, Obaidul Quader, attributed the “India out” campaign to opposition parties, accusing them of blaming India for their electoral setbacks. Quader stated that the common people of Bangladesh do not support the campaign and trust that the Awami League works in their best interest.

However, the anti-India campaign is gaining traction within Bangladesh’s domestic political landscape, sparking concerns about potential economic destabilization and impacting regional relations. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is actively promoting the boycott movement. BNP asserted that the people of Bangladesh dislike India’s interference in their politics and claims that India has been involved in supporting the regime in power since 2014, and resentment has grown due to issues like border killings, unresolved water-sharing agreements, and trade deficits.

The recent elections in Bangladesh, where Awami League secured a significant victory amid opposition boycotts, drew swift congratulations from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, Western governments expressed reservations, citing the absence of a strong opposition presence.

Analysts noted that India’s unequivocal support for the Awami League during the 2024 elections has led to citizens questioning whether it compromised the country’s sovereignty. Some are challenging the notion of India’s support and suggested that the Awami League was resourceful in navigating the polls. As other countries, like China, congratulated Prime Minister Hasina immediately after the election, this questions the significance of India’s support.

Meanwhile, analysts underscore the potential significant repercussions of boycotting Indian goods on the economic ties between the two countries. India has been a major exporter to Bangladesh, with annual trade historically exceeding $12 billion. Furthermore, Bangladesh heavily relies on India for essential commodities, and ongoing discussions between the two governments are centered on an annual quota for Indian farm product imports.

The economic fallout of boycotting Indian products would be more severe for Bangladesh. Given India’s status as a neighbouring country, Bangladesh is heavily dependent on it for everyday essentials like rice and onions, which are obtained at more affordable prices due to geographical proximity. Sourcing these products elsewhere would result in significantly higher costs.

The “India Out” movement might hold political significance by sending a strong message to Indian policymakers about growing discontent in Bangladesh. However, the economic effects are less straightforward. Despite being India’s fourth-largest export destination, Bangladesh constitutes only about 3.5% of the Indian export market. Even if exports to Bangladesh were to cease, it would likely not have a significant impact on the Indian economy, as these products could find alternative markets.