Why is Russia trying to arrest the Estonian PM?

Moscow has added the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, and other officials from Baltic states to a wanted list, while Tallinn issues a warning about an imminent Russian military buildup along its border.

The facts

According to Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Estonian State Secretary Taimar Peterkop, the Lithuanian Culture Minister Simonas Kairys, and Prime Minister Kallas are accused of “destroying monuments to Soviet soldiers,” referring to the removal of memorials from the Soviet-era Second World War.

Zakharova stated on her Telegram channel, “This is just the beginning. Crimes against the memory of the world’s liberators from Nazism and fascism must be prosecuted.” The specific charges against the three individuals have not been disclosed by Russian authorities.

Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, Moscow has placed numerous senior officials and generals from Kyiv on its wanted list. However, Kallas is notably the first government head known to be sought by Moscow.

The arguments

The Estonian Prime Minister has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, actively leading efforts to increase military aid to Kyiv and tighten sanctions against Russia.

Moscow’s decision to include Kallas on its wanted list is likely to escalate tensions in the region, especially at a time when many Western capitals are expressing concerns about an escalating military threat from Russia.

Responding to questions about Kallas, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for Vladimir Putin, stated on Tuesday that the Estonian leader “took hostile acts against our country and historical memory.”

The removal of Soviet-era monuments has been a sensitive issue in Estonia, a former Soviet republic from 1944 to 1991, where nearly a quarter of the 1.3 million population consists of ethnic Russians. This process has gained momentum since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, with Kallas committing to the removal of all communist monuments from public spaces. In the summer of 2022, officials, under Kallas’s leadership, removed a Soviet tank memorial from Narva, a predominantly Russian-speaking city near the Russian border.

Estonia is keen to avoid a repeat of the unrest it faced in 2007 when the removal of the Bronze Soldier statue in Tallinn led to two nights of rioting and looting, followed by a significant cyber-attack blamed on Russia.

In efforts to counter pro-Russian narratives about the Ukraine war, Estonia has banned four Russian television channels from cable television, which serve as a major news source for many older ethnic Russians.

Tensions remain high, with Estonia’s foreign intelligence service warning of Russia’s intention to double its troops along the Baltic states and Finland border, preparing for a potential conflict with NATO within the next decade. Kaupo Rosin, the director general of the Estonian service, emphasized the need for Europe to prepare by rearming, despite considering a short-term military attack by Russia as “highly unlikely.”

While Russia has placed numerous Baltic politicians on its wanted list, including former Latvian interior minister Marija Golubeva, the Baltic states, including Latvia, have announced plans to remove Soviet memorials from public spaces, causing further tensions with Moscow. Last year, Latvia’s demolition of a nearly 260ft-tall obelisk erected during Soviet rule drew Moscow’s ire.

All three Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, had previously expelled Russian diplomats amid tensions over the Ukraine conflict. Relations with Moscow have remained strained since gaining independence during the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the Baltic states viewing Russia as an occupying power.