What’s behind China threatening Taiwan ahead of elections?

Chinese leader Xi Jinping asserted on Tuesday that the reunification of Taiwan with China is inevitable, reiterating Beijing’s longstanding position on the self-ruled island ahead of a crucial upcoming election.

The arguments

Xi stated that “the realization of complete reunification with the motherland is an inevitable course of development, is righteous, and aligns with the people’s desires. The motherland must and will be reunified,” during an address commemorating the 130th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China by Mao Zedong.

The remarks mirror previous statements by Xi in the last months, emphasizing the importance of bringing Taiwan under Chinese control as part of his broader ambition to enhance China’s global power and influence. The timing of these comments is particularly significant, occurring just weeks before a pivotal presidential election in Taiwan. In Taiwan, differing political party perspectives on relations with China often serve as a barometer for public sentiment towards Beijing and coincide with what Taiwan alleges are increased influence operations by China’s ruling Communist Party on the island.

China’s Communist Party asserts territorial claims over Taiwan, despite never having governed the island. Chinese officials express a commitment to achieving a peaceful “reunification” with Taiwan but do not exclude the possibility of using force to assert control.

The complex relationship between Taipei and Beijing traces back to 1949 when General Chiang Kai-shek and his nationalist forces fled to Taiwan after Mao’s Red Army gained the upper hand in the Chinese Civil War. In his recent speech, Xi urged China’s citizens to “never forget” Mao and the Communist Party’s “original aspiration and founding mission,” underlining confidence in history to advance the great cause of Chinese modernization steadily.

The facts

Xi emphasized the need to “promote peaceful development of cross-strait ties” and prevent any attempts to separate Taiwan from China during his Tuesday speech, serving as a veiled warning not only to Taipei but also to Washington. Taiwan has become a contentious issue in U.S.-China relations. During a recent summit in San Francisco, Xi reportedly informed U.S. President Joe Biden that China’s “reunification” with Taiwan is “unstoppable”.

The tensions escalated in August 2022 when then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan at the invitation of President Tsai. China responded by encircling the island with extensive military exercises, disrupting high-level military communication with the U.S. armed forces. The diplomatic channel was only reopened last week after more than a year of careful diplomacy, including the Xi-Biden summit.

The United States maintains an unofficial relationship with Taiwan and adheres to a “One China” policy, acknowledging China’s stance that Taiwan is part of its territory. However, the U.S. has never officially recognized Beijing’s claim to the island’s 23 million inhabitants and is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

The upcoming Taiwanese elections follows years of escalating tensions, with Beijing applying military, political, and economic pressure on the island under the leadership of President Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai, widely recognized for cultivating Taiwan’s unofficial ties with the United States, is not seeking re-election. The leading candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, Vice President Lai Ching-te, currently leads in the polls and is openly disliked by Chinese officials. He envisions a Taiwan moving closer to West.

Lai’s competitors, Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang party and Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party, are perceived as favouring closer relations with Beijing.