Ruling party candidate leads polls in Taiwan

Two weeks ahead of the Taiwan presidential election on January 13, Lai Ching-te, the primary candidate, has expanded his advantage in the latest polls by leveraging the China issue against his nearest competitor.

During the televised policy presentations on December 26, Lai, representing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), accused the main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT), of being pro-Beijing. He argued that the KMT intends to concentrate the island’s economic efforts solely on China, rather than diversifying. This tactic reveals Lai’s strategy of highlighting the connection between China and the KMT, describing it as an old trick.

China views Taiwan as a part of its territory to be eventually reunified, but a majority of Taiwanese prefer maintaining the current status quo.

There is a distinct contrast in China policy between the DPP and KMT. The KMT acknowledges the “92 Consensus,” which asserts the existence of one China across both sides of the Taiwan Strait, while the independence-leaning DPP does not.

According to a most recent poll on December 28, Lai and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim have secured 40.0% support, compared to 28.9% for the KMT team, resulting in an 11.1% point gap. This gap has widened from the previous poll on December 26, where the DPP led by 9% points.

The KMT is fielding Hou Yu-ih and running mate Jaw Shaw-kong.

In the three-way competition, Dr. Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and his running mate Cynthia Wu trail in the latest poll with 17.6%, up from 16.6% in the previous survey.

Another poll released by an online news platform on December 27 shows the DPP pair at 38.1%, the KMT team at 34.8%, and the TPP ticket at 19.2%.

In recent days, Hou has faced increased scrutiny over a condominium owned by his wife, located near Chinese Culture University in Taipei, with its units rented out to students. On December 27, he showed reporters a letter from his wife, promising to let out 50 units of the property at subsidized rates to low-income youth.

Lai and Dr. Ko have also been embroiled in controversies over property. Lai has drawn criticism over his childhood home in a former mining area in New Taipei City, allegedly expanded illegally. A plot of land in Hsinchu co-owned by Dr. Ko is said to be used as a carpark despite being designated for farming and grazing.

In response, Lai has promised to turn his childhood home into a mining museum, while Dr. Ko said he would convert the carpark back to farmland.

While still trailing behind the DPP team, the KMT pair has improved their poll numbers since registering their candidacy in late November.

Analysts are highlighting factors that could influence the outcome, including Beijing’s actions and whether supporters of Dr. Ko would switch allegiance to Hou.

Researchers state that anything could happen in the last weeks, as Taiwan has witnessed increased election intervention by China, such as disseminating social media posts to influence voters in favour of Beijing-friendly parties.