Prabowo likely to win the Indonesian election from first round

The current defence minister has been on a steady upward trajectory for the past three months, according to a poll of polls assembled by The Economist magazine

The Economist offers a detailed timeline comparing the polling trajectories of the three main Indonesian candidates: Prabowo Subianto, Anies Baswedan, and Ganjar Pranowo. Prabowo’s polling uplift puts him on track to reach the crucial 50% mark that he needs to win without a run-off.

Since appointing President Joko Widodo’s son – Gibran Rakabuming Raka – as his running-mate in October, the former general’s popularity has surged. His support also increased after strong performances in heated presidential debates on December 12 and January 7.

The economist poll of polls indicates Pabowo’s vote share could be as high as 52% while his opponents Anies Baswedan, a former Jakarta governor, and Ganjar Pranowo, who previously ran the province of central Java, split the rest equally.

While Widodo cannot stand, having reached his two-term limit, his legacy remains a key factor in the votes. Indonesians seem willing to reward the current president’s preferred successor Prabowo for the robust economic performance the country has enjoyed since emerging from COVID. Even among tens of millions of first-time voters contemplating their choices.

Prabowo has sought to soften the tough image he established leading the country’s military in order to win over tens of millions of younger voters who will go to the polls for the first time this year. He has used his Instagram account, which has almost 9 million followers to offer a behind-the-scenes look at his campaign.

Prabowo’s political journey is a case study of resilience. Despite facing multiple allegations throughout his extensive career, his critics have never managed to end his political career. Over time, he has assumed various roles, transitioning from a military strongman to a defender of Islamic values and even a global peacemaker. As the election approaches, Prabowo has capitalised on his experience to assume a grandfatherly image that appeals to Indonesia’s Generation Z and millennial voters.

In early 2008, Prabowo established the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra). In the 2009 presidential election, he ran unsuccessfully for the vice-presidency as Megawati Sukarnoputri’s running mate. He contested the 2014 presidential election and was defeated by Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo. He made another unsuccessful run for the presidency in 2019, losing again against Widodo. He contested the results of the election, however he joined Widodo’s cabinet as Minister of Defence in 2019. As a minister, Prabowo aimed to strengthen Indonesia’s military by acquiring newer fighter aircraft and new vessels and reinforce Indonesia’s leading role in Southeast Asia.

Prabowo promised to be a president that will prioritize and significantly strengthen the defence and security of the country. He declared his intentions to usher in a new era for Indonesia, a famously non-aligned nation, during a time of profound global crises disrupting the international order and ongoing tensions between the US and China, which pose a threat to regional stability. Enhancing security is a cornerstone of Prabowo’s platform. His prior role as Minister of Defence showcased his commitment to a proficient and well-equipped military and security forces. This dedication is set to continue, with a focus on heightened investment in enhancing the capacities, capabilities, and modernization of Indonesia’s armed forces and security forces.

Prabowo’s perspective on security extends beyond military and defence investments. While acknowledging the importance of maintaining a robust military for defending Indonesia and addressing present security challenges, he advocates for a more comprehensive strategy. Prabowo thinks Indonesia need to achieve self-reliance in essential areas such as food, energy, and water. Sustainability, in his view, necessitates an expansion of the country’s industrial base, substantial investments in lifting people out of poverty, and ensuring access to fundamental elements such as education, healthcare, and opportunities. Additionally, fostering harmony among all ethnic and religious groups is deemed crucial for promoting the cohesion of Indonesian society. In the international area, Prabowo is committed to consolidate Indonesia’s role as a champion of the Global South and engaging actively in international forums such as the UN or ASEAN.

With the election scheduled less than a month away, the political fever is growing to a climax. Prabowo’s opponents split around half of the predicted vote between them, meaning he will be hoping to wrap up the contest in a single round. Subianto appears to maintain a strong lead, potentially exceeding the margin necessary for a first-round victory. This situation has shifted the focus to Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, who are competing for second place.