Moving up the presidential election hits Algeria unexpectedly

The announcement of bringing forward the presidential elections came without justification or explanation. A brief press release was published Thursday, following a meeting chaired by the Algerian head of state, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, with the prime minister, the heads of the two chambers of Parliament, the chief of staff of the army and the president of the Constitutional Court. “It was decided to hold an early presidential election, the date of which is set for Saturday September 7, 2024. The electorate will be convened on June 8, 2024,” indicates the text.

This measure, initially scheduled for December, completely surprised the citizens. With the political life practically frozen and the media forced to be cautious in order to survive, the Algerians took on social networks to express their astonishment.

A covert campaign by the current president?

The only precedent for an early presidential election in Algeria dates back to September 1998, when president Liamine Zeroual took care to specify that he would not be a candidate. Nothing of the sort was mentioned in the text published Thursday. But citizens do not think the current president will not run.

Even if it is perplexing, the decision to bring forward the presidential election is not contrary to the Constitution, which provides in article 91 that the president “may decide to organize an early presidential election”. The question does not arise at the legal level, but at the political level. Tebboune has, in fact, been campaigning for months and his candidacy does not appear to be seriously contested within the regime. The head of the army, Saïd Chengriha, has even on several occasions ostensibly displayed his support for the current tenant of the El Mouradia palace.

Algerian presidents usually reappointed by the army

Political life has been reduced to almost zero by the systematic repression carried out since 2020 to end Hirak, the Algerian protests against the regime. Algeria, dominated by the army, tends to reappoint the president in office rather than pushing for change. This took an incredible turn under the presidency of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, maintained at the head of state even though he was clearly incapable of assuming the office.

Aged 78, Tebboune, seems to win easy the next elections. The only rival candidate announced so far is Zoubida Assoul, lawyer and leader of the Union for Change and Progress (UCP). However, he will have to succeed in collecting the signatures of 600 elected officials or 75,000 citizens. The decision to anticipate the election will make this task even more difficult for all the candidates.

One of the most popular analyses on social networks is that the aim of the maneuver is precisely to catch potential candidates off guard by not giving them time to train their campaign teams, which will also have to take place during the month in August, a period of great heat.

Others suggested this measure is related to the prospect of a visit to France by Tebboune, announced for the end of September or the beginning of October. Organizing an election in December would have had the consequence of having an Algerian president at the end of his mandate on an official visit to Paris, with the risk of being accused of having gone to seek a “blessing” in France. By bringing the election forward to September 7, it will be a re-elected president that Emmanuel Macron would meet.