How Jacob Zuma’s new party could influence elections in South Africa

Jacob Zuma once proclaimed that the African National Congress (ANC) would maintain its rule in South Africa “until Jesus comes back.” However, the resurgence of the former president could significantly impact the country’s upcoming election set for May 29th. If his new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), manages to overcome legal challenges to appear on the ballot, it could shape the election to be the most significant since the end of apartheid.

MK will likely erode support for ANC

By eroding support for the ANC, Zuma’s party could potentially necessitate a coalition for the ruling party to retain power. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa faces a critical decision for both himself and the nation. Will he seek to form a coalition with pragmatists, or will he turn to former ANC figures like Zuma, potentially steering South Africa toward a more populist and anti-Western direction?

Following the end of apartheid in 1994, the ANC secured victory by promising voters “a better life for all,” a slogan it has revived ahead of the May election. The ANC’s electoral zenith occurred in 2004, when it garnered 69.7% of the national vote under President Thabo Mbeki. Since then, its share of the vote has steadily declined in each general election, reaching 57.5% in 2019.

However, until recently, many analysts anticipated that the ANC would still gahter around 50% of the national vote. Despite its shortcomings, voters credit the ANC for its role in the anti-apartheid struggle and for establishing a welfare state, albeit a modest one. Over the years, the party has contended with numerous splinter groups, but most have struggled to gain traction. The notable exception is the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a leftist party founded by Julius Malema, which typically garners 10-12% of the vote.

Zuma campaigning for MK came as surprise

Then, a significant turn of events occurred. In September, the MK party was registered, initially attracting little attention. However, in December, Zuma announced his intention to campaign for MK instead of the ANC. This move marked the culmination of six years of intrigue against President Ramaphosa, who succeeded Zuma in 2018 after defeating his predecessor’s ex-wife for the party leadership. In 2021, following Zuma’s imprisonment for contempt of court, his supporters incited the worst riots since apartheid.

The new party serves as a platform for Zuma’s grievances. However, it taps into two potent veins of public sentiment. Firstly, there’s the notion that the ANC has strayed from its original “revolutionary” purpose, an idea also espoused by the EFF.

MK derives its name (meaning “spear of the nation”) from the armed wing of the ANC during apartheid and presents itself as a “true liberation movement.” However, an extensive judge-led inquiry into “state capture” during Zuma’s presidency revealed that the only thing liberated during that time was public funds. Zuma denies any wrongdoing.

The second strand is ethno-nationalism. Zulus constitute South Africa’s largest ethnic group, with many maintaining ties to traditional institutions like the Zulu monarchy and its political ally, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). Under Zuma’s leadership, the ANC garnered significant support from Zulus. His conservative viewpoints resonate with those who believe that modern South Africa has undermined traditional culture.

His allies within the party have threatened violence if the ANC’s case, filed on March 19th before an electoral court alleging irregularities in MK’s registration with the electoral commission, is successful. The ANC’s pursuit of this case underscores its apprehension. A recent poll by the Social Research Foundation indicated that MK could secure over 20% of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal, potentially translating to about 5% nationally. Other polls have suggested MK’s support nationally could exceed 10%, potentially reducing the ANC’s share to around 40%.

ANC will need to negotiate to stay in power

South Africa employs a complex formula to allocate its 400 seats in the national assembly, with no pre-set minimum threshold. This incentivizes the formation of small parties. Previously, the ANC assumed it could secure a majority in parliament with just under 50% of the vote by offering a few junior ministerial positions.

However, with a projected 40% share, this strategy becomes considerably more challenging. To retain power, Ramaphosa may need to negotiate with one or more of the larger parties, including the Democratic Alliance, the IFP, the EFF, or even MK.

Some within his party advocate for reconciling with the EFF and MK, both of which advocate for Soviet-style economic policies such as land expropriation without compensation and admire Vladimir Putin.

Ramaphosa’s supporters suggest he may prefer a government of national unity, akin to the one formed by Nelson Mandela in 1994. Three decades post-apartheid, the government could again resemble a political version of a South African barbecue, where all are invited.