If elected, would Trump be a disruptive president?

Donald Trump has issued a warning to America, suggesting that his potential second term would be more disruptive and turbulent than his initial one. The newly presumed Republican nominee secured his position for a general election rematch against President Joe Biden after his last remaining rival, Nikki Haley, acknowledged reality and suspended her campaign on Wednesday.

The facts

The victory of the former and potentially future president marks an astonishing comeback, considering his previous attempt to influence the 2020 election and the multitude of criminal and civil trials threatening his freedom and wealth. This sets the stage for one of the most crucial elections in American history. Given his demonstrated disregard for democratic institutions, the nation’s political, legal, and constitutional safeguards face a significant challenge from a GOP candidate who might be a convicted felon by Election Day. There is also the possibility that he views restored executive power as a means to obstruct federal prosecutions.

Trump’s re-election is poised to reverberate across a world still recuperating from his unpredictable leadership and close ties to autocrats.

The arguments

Trump distinguishes himself from traditional candidates by eschewing the role of a fresh, optimistic voice with unifying policy ideas for the nation. Instead, he presents America as a dystopian, failed state besieged by lawlessness, urban decay, and on the brink of global conflict. Employing a dictatorial trope, he pledges to root out internal enemies, seek revenge against political adversaries, and assumes the persona of a strongman, intertwining his personal and political interests with the nation’s.

In a Super Tuesday victory speech at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida resort and political return hub, Trump painted a grim picture of the country, labelling it a third-world nation at its borders and in its elections.. Trump depicts America not as Ronald Reagan’s “shining city on a Hill” but as a declining banana republic, beset by inflation, energy shortages, drug-ridden cities, immigrant crime, and dilapidated airports.

Describing 2024 as the “final battle,” Trump pledges to dismantle the deep state, expel warmongers, drive out globalists, and eradicate Marxists, communists, and fascists. This resonates with many Republicans disenchanted with a federal government that oversaw draining foreign wars, financial crises, job outsourcing, and a pandemic that eroded trust in institutions. Trump exacerbates national estrangement by propagating the falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen, casting a shadow over US democracy.

Leveraging his extensive legal challenges, including nearly half a billion dollars in civil judgments and impending criminal trials, Trump portrays himself as a persecuted political dissident. This skilful manipulation of alternative realities poses a formidable challenge for his opponents. The intersection of Trump’s legal entanglements with a federal election introduces constitutional complexities that may surpass those of his first term.

77-year-old Trump will candidate against an 81-year-old incumbent, Biden, who, by traditional standards, has had a successful first term marked by the passage of substantial legislation. The economy is robust, unemployment is low, growth is vigorous, and the US outperforms most industrialized nations. While Trump demoralized US allies in his initial term, Biden has revitalized and expanded NATO in response to War in Ukraine.

Despite Biden’s achievements, Trump has considerable chances of regaining power, given Biden’s unpopularity due to high grocery prices and rent, which undermine the normality promised after the pandemic. Trump is capitalizing on his successor’s failure to address a border crisis, stoking fears of a migrant invasion that could dilute America’s White social culture – a demagogic tactic reminiscent of 1930s fascism.

Biden’s perceptible aging, including a stiffened gait, reedy voice, and the loss of his energetic persona, raises scepticism about his fitness for a second term ending at the age of 86. Faced with Trump’s extremism and his own political vulnerabilities, Biden anchors his campaign on a warning that Trump is not just a threat to democracy but would destroy it. He seeks to remind Americans of the chaos and division characterizing Trump’s term, countering apparent nostalgia for the stability the ex-president and his aides tout.

Biden’s democracy-focused approach proved successful in 2020, leading to his narrow victory over Trump and surprising pundits in the 2022 midterm elections. However, he now confronts a referendum on his own record, disliked by many voters, while Trump enjoys momentum after a dominating performance in the Super Tuesday primaries, solidifying his control of the GOP.

Trump’s threat to democratic institutions and the rule of law is not speculative. The former president explicitly outlined his plans should he become only the second former commander-in-chief, after Grover Cleveland in 1892, to secure a second non-consecutive term.

In essence, Trump’s current platform is unprecedentedly extreme. He advocates for the dissolution of the Constitution and seeks unchecked presidential power granted by the Supreme Court, which he intends to wield for personal “retribution” against his adversaries. He promises to dismantle the civil service in government departments, replacing positions with political appointees. He indicates a potential instrumentalization of the Justice Department for personal political ends, rather than its intended role as an independent arbiter of the rule of law. Former officials from Trump’s administration fear he might withdraw from NATO, undermine the post-World War II international system, and align with dictators.

Trump espouses divisive views, characterizing undocumented immigrants as “poisoning the blood” of the country and advocating for mass deportations and detention camps. Using language reminiscent of 1930s dictators, he labels his opponents as “vermin.” During a recent address, he warned supporters that failure in the November election would mean the end of the country.

While Trump has secured significant victories in key states and dominates the delegate race, his primary campaign revealed genuine weaknesses. Nikki Haley consistently outperformed Trump in suburban areas with more moderate and highly educated Republican voters. These regions will play a crucial role in deciding the 2024 election, and Biden aims to appeal to GOP voters alienated by Trump, who voted for Haley.