Is North Korea truly considering war?

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has said last week that unification with the South is no longer possible, and that the constitution should be changed to designate it the “principal enemy”. Kim also said three organizations dealing with reunification would shut down.

He also said that if a war breaks out on the Korean peninsula, the country’s constitution should reflect the issue of “occupying”, “recapturing” and “incorporating” the South into its territory. Kim, who replaced his father, Kim Jong-il, as North Korean leader in 2011, said the North “did not want war, but we also have no intention of avoiding it”.

The facts

Kim’s statements come amidst a notable deterioration in relations on the Korean Peninsula over the past few months. In November, North Korea fully terminated a five-year military agreement with the South, designed to reduce military tensions. The North pledged to undo all measures “taken to prevent military conflict in all spheres, including ground, sea, and air,” and announced plans to deploy additional forces to the border region.

Earlier that month, the South had partially suspended the agreement after Kim asserted a successful launch of a spy satellite into space. Since then, the North’s rhetoric and provocative actions have intensified. During year-end policy meetings, Kim expressed the need to “newly formulate” North Korea’s stance on inter-Korean relations and reunification policy, aiming for a “decisive policy change” in relation to the perceived “enemy.”

He also issued threats of a nuclear attack on the South and advocated for a bolstering of his country’s military arsenal. Recent weeks have seen North Korea launching missiles and conducting live-fire exercises near South Korean territory. Analysts assessed the situation on the Korean Peninsula as more dangerous than it has ever been since the Korean War began in 1950.

The arguments

Some analysts are suggesting that Kim Jong Un might have strategically decided to go to war, drawing parallels with his grandfather’s decision in 1950. They expressed concern, stating that although the timing and method of Kim’s potential actions are unknown, the danger has surpassed routine warnings about Pyongyang’s provocations in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo.

Even if North Korea use provocative declarations almost daily, it looks that North Korean media’s “war preparation themes” are more than just typical bluster.

Concurrently, North Korea’s Foreign Minister, Choe Son Hui, is in Russia, where she is expected to meet with President Vladimir Putin. Both countries, facing isolation from Western powers, have strengthened ties, with a previous meeting between Kim and Putin taking place in September of the preceding year.

It will be hard for North Korea, though, to win an easy war with the South. Speaking to his cabinet on last week, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said that if the North carried out a provocation, the South “will retaliate multiple times stronger”, pointing to the South Korean military’s “overwhelming response capabilities”.