Is Europe anticipating a potential new presidency by Donald Trump?

As the prospect of his return to the White House looms, European diplomats are rushing to understand Trump’s goals and anticipate alterations in US foreign policy.

They are engaging in a delicate dance, seeking information and developing connections with former President Trump’s allies.

The facts

This coordinated effort indicates a strategic initiative by European capitals to foresee and negotiate future alterations in transatlantic relations, particularly in NATO and backing for Ukraine during its confrontation with Russia.

These diplomats, according to CNN, are holding face-to-face talks in private venues throughout Washington, including clubs, hotels, embassies, and think tanks, to better comprehend Trump’s plans.

Representatives then convey crucial information back to their respective capitals as discussions focus on policy directions and potential personnel appointments. The goal is to open lines of contact and form personal connections with key figures in Trump’s orbit, acknowledging the importance of relationships in guiding US foreign policy.

The arguments

Diplomats are especially eager in meeting with former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, and Keith Kellogg, former Vice President Mike Pence’s top national security adviser.

While such meetings are sought after, they are not always straightforward to schedule. New diplomats have obstacles and must strategise. Experienced ambassadors and those from larger countries have had greater success than newbies or those from smaller states.

Lessons learned

In contrast to the 2016 election, where many diplomats overlooked engagement with Trump allies, there is now a recognition of the importance of fostering relationships with key figures in American politics.

The continental perspective

European officials are prioritising efforts to increase support for Ukraine, anticipating a less sympathetic position from a second Trump administration. Concerns about Trump’s intentions have led to initiatives such as establishing a $100 billion NATO fund over five years to support Ukraine and looking into methods to use frozen Russian Central Bank assets to benefit the country.

British engagement

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron’s meeting with Trump underscores the broader efforts of NATO countries to engage with Trump and his circle.

Outreach to Republicans

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s speech at the Heritage Foundation spoke about his efforts to engage with Republican leaders, understanding the importance of GOP priorities in shaping US foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Trump’s comments about NATO have raised concerns among European diplomats, who are seeking clarification on his goals and policy choices.

Anticipating Trump’s strategy

According to analysts, Trump’s approach to resolving the Ukraine issue may include direct conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with US military help perhaps used as a bargaining tool.

Although European diplomats are apprehensive of Trump’s unpredictable temperament, they are looking for ways to interact and better grasp his administration’s likely policies on Ukraine and other foreign issues.