How likely is Trump getting excluded from the Republican primaries?

The push to exclude former President Donald J. Trump from the electoral race due to his post-2020 election attempts to retain power has intensified, resulting in rulings in Maine and Colorado that prevent him from participating in primary ballots.

The facts

Ongoing challenges in numerous states center on an obscure clause of a constitutional amendment established after the Civil War. This clause disqualifies government officials who have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” from holding office. The lack of clarity from the courts and Congress on the application of this criterion has heightened the urgency for the U.S. Supreme Court to address the politically charged dispute before the upcoming election.

In Maine, the secretary of state, Shenna Bellows, a Democrat, stated that Trump did not meet the qualifications for the Republican primary ballot. This decision was based on his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, with the reasoning that he had incited an insurrection, rendering him ineligible under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

California’s secretary of state announced that Trump would remain on the ballot, as election officials in the state have limited power to remove candidates.

Colorado’s State Supreme Court ruled, in a 4-to-3 decision, that the former president should be excluded from the primary ballot due to his engagement in insurrection. However, the ruling did not address the general election. Justices in Colorado noted that if their decision were appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, Trump could stay on the ballot until the high court made a final decision. The Colorado secretary of state indicated adherence to the order in place on Jan. 5, the date for ballot certification.

The Colorado Republican Party has sought Supreme Court intervention, filing an appeal against the Colorado decision.

In Michigan and Minnesota, courts have ruled that election officials cannot prevent the inclusion of Trump on Republican primary ballots. However, these decisions do not preclude potential challenges to bar him from the general election ballot.

The arguments

Lawsuits aiming to remove Trump from the ballot were initiated in approximately 30 states, but a significant number have been dismissed. Currently, there are active lawsuits in 14 states. These states include Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

The primary focus of these disqualification efforts revolves around the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, adopted in 1868, which contains a section disqualifying former government officials who have betrayed their oaths through “insurrection or rebellion” from holding office. Specifically, Section 3 of the amendment aims to bar individuals who, having served as “an officer of the United States,” took an oath to support the Constitution and subsequently “engaged in insurrection or rebellion.”

The provision includes a condition allowing Congress to waive the prohibition with a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate.

As the legal challenges continue to accumulate, there is widespread anticipation that the U.S. Supreme Court will address the issue. Experts suggest that the breadth of the decision will determine whether the challenges are swiftly resolved or extend over several months.

A decision is anticipated shortly in Oregon, where the same group that initiated the Michigan lawsuit, Free Speech for People, is pushing for the State Supreme Court to remove Trump from the primary ballot. In this particular case, the secretary of state has urged the court to expedite its review, citing the need to finalize the primary ballot by March 21.

Free Speech for People has revealed that the group intends to launch new challenges in additional states in the near future. However, they have refrained from disclosing the specific states targeted. Free Speech for People has directly appealed to the top election officials in all 50 states, along with Washington, D.C., requesting the removal of Trump from the ballots in those jurisdictions.