How is it possible that Ethiopia is sliding into starvation again?

From 2020 to 2022, conflict raged across northern Ethiopia, pitting Tigrayan forces against the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies and regional militias. A land once plundered by soldiers now faces the harsh impact of drought. Some farmers have managed to harvest enough to last a few months, while others have nothing at all. The next significant harvest is still eight months away.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network, funded by the American government, predicts that most of Tigray will face “emergency” levels of hunger in the coming months, just one level below famine. The recent harvest was a mere third of the expected size. The situation is similarly dire in parts of the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, which also experienced conflict, as well as in southern grazing areas. Nearly 16 million Ethiopians are grappling with food shortages.

Starvation is used as a weapon of war

The northern highlands always contend with unpredictable rains, particularly in years when the El Niño weather pattern emerges. However, marauding armies have not only robbed farmers of their assets but also disrupted the economic networks that once helped stave off hunger. According to an official, when Eritrean soldiers arrived in the area, they seized livestock for sustenance, later slaughtering the remaining animals to induce starvation among the locals. Farmers recount instances of soldiers burning ploughs, stealing sickles, and slaughtering oxen. The federal government and its allies impeded aid deliveries, cut off electricity, and blocked banking transactions. A UN inquiry revealed that starvation was wielded as a weapon of war.

Although most services are now restored, a million people in Tigray cannot return to their homes in areas still occupied by forces from Amhara or Eritrea.

In normal times, young people could follow the rains, seeking seasonal farm work in the fertile lowlands of the west. However, this is no longer an option. Migration to the Afar region has also ceased due to the war.

Hunger may be most severe in parts of Amhara, where 1.7 million people are affected by the drought. Ongoing conflict, as the Ethiopian army battles a regional militia, exacerbates the situation. Armed groups have attacked food trucks, and some areas are challenging for aid workers to reach. Parts of the region had already suffered devastation from Tigrayan forces in the war.

The situation seems to be the same as in 1983

Elders in the worst-hit areas of the north draw parallels with the catastrophe of 1983-85 when hundreds of thousands starved to death. The regional administration in Tigray warns of an “unfolding famine,” estimating thousands have already died from hunger-related causes. The federal government dismisses such claims as alarmist, and aid workers cautiously avoid using “famine,” believing the reported number of deaths is overstated. Rainfall data indicate that while this drought is not as extensive as in the worst historical episodes, it is equally severe in certain places.

Regardless, it is evident that more lives will be lost unless prompt assistance arrives. The government’s well-regarded Productive Safety Net Programme, which offers cash, food, and employment to approximately 8 million needy individuals nationwide, used to fulfil about a quarter of the caloric requirements in the areas now affected by drought. However, due to severe underfunding, transfers will cease entirely for two months this year.

International aid was diverted to local gangs

International aid has also encountered setbacks. Last year, the UN’s World Food Programme and the American government halted food distributions for eight months in Tigray and six months nationwide after uncovering what an American official describes as “multiple, concurrent schemes to divert humanitarian assistance away from its intended beneficiaries.” Food aid was being pilfered across the country to sustain soldiers or sold for profit. Although distribution has slowly resumed since December at lower levels than before, the aid provided by agencies and the government reached 6.5 million people in January, which remains insufficient.