How does the use of AI affect Russia’s war in Ukraine?

A new battleground has emerged in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. This new front is the skies, where AI-enabled drones are being used.

According to reports, Russia’s crucial oil industry is being disrupted by Ukraine using sophisticated drone technology, seriously impairing Russia’s refining capabilities. This plan seeks to reduce Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine as well as its financial capabilities.

With a jam-resistant technology and precise targeting, are these drones proving to be effective weapons that illustrate how warfare is evolving in the era of artificial intelligence (AI)?

The facts

Ukraine uses AI-enabled drones to attack Russia’s crucial oil industry in an effort to severely impair Russia’s ability to wage war and inflict significant financial losses. The drones that are used are outfitted with artificial intelligence pilots, jam-resistant technology, and sophisticated navigation systems.

A mix of satellite and topography data, pre-planned flight paths, and cutting-edge sensors enable precision strikes.

Also, Russia’s oil processing capacity is said to have been reduced by 12% by Ukraine, however Reuters places the figure closer to 14%. In response, Russia outlaws the export of petrol in order to stop domestic fuel prices from rising as a result of a decline in refining capacity.

The arguments

Drone technology in Ukraine has developed from its original use for surveillance to a thriving enterprise, giving it a technological edge against Russia’s resources.

Compared to random refinery hits, the precision strikes carried out by the AI-enabled drones on distillation units cause greater damage to Ukraine’s targets.

This is not the first time Ukraine resorted to the use in drones but the country’s reliance on AI-drones have increased since February 2022. Experts highlight the relative crudeness of the AI used in the drones but acknowledge the evolving potential of this technology in warfare.

Observers say the technological advancements and strategic use of drones showcase Ukraine’s innovation and adaptability in confronting a larger and better-equipped adversary.

Per CNN’s report, a source close to Ukraine’s drone program explained that “Accuracy under jamming is enabled through the use of artificial intelligence. Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data”.

The source added that the flights are determined in advance “with our allies, and the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision.”

Impact on global oil prices

The disruption caused by these drone attacks is affecting global oil prices. This has raised concerns among politicians in the United States about potential economic impacts.

U.S. officials emphasize a stance of not encouraging or enabling attacks inside Russia, aiming to maintain stability in global energy markets.

Politicians in the US are concerned about the possible economic impact of the strikes on refineries in Ukraine during a crucial election year, as the strikes have driven up oil prices globally, with Brent crude up almost 13% this year selling above $80 per barrel.

Washington officials have stated that they are actively trying to dissuade Ukraine from striking these facilities.