Ex-Finnish PM wins presidency, pledges firm stance on Russia

Alexander Stubb, Finland’s former prime minister, made a surprising return to politics by winning a closely contested runoff election on Sunday, securing the presidency after seven years away from the political scene.

The outcome of the election garnered significant attention from European capitals and beyond, given Finland’s strategically vital position along the eastern border of the EU and NATO, which faces an increasingly assertive Russia. As Finland’s president leads foreign policy alongside the government and serves as the commander-in-chief, the election result holds particular significance.

Stubb won 51.6% of the votes

Stubb, a member of the mainstream center-right National Coalition Party (NCP), secured victory over former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto of the center-left Green Party in the runoff, with 51.6% of the vote to Haavisto’s 48.4%.

Prior to the election, Stubb cited Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a motivating factor for his return to Finnish politics, aiming to contribute to Europe’s response to the Kremlin’s actions. However, following his victory, Stubb struck a more conciliatory tone, underlining his commitment to peace despite the campaign’s focus on “war, defence, and NATO.” Stubb declared that one of the president’s primary responsibilities is to promote peace and pledged to fulfil this duty during his presidency.

The new president replaces the popular outgoing incumbent Sauli Niinistö, also from the NCP, who had served the maximum two six-year terms. Niinistö was instrumental in Finland’s decision to join NATO in April, following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Internationally, he was recognized as a skilled leader who navigated Finland through delicate accession negotiations, particularly with Turkey and Hungary.

Stubb faced criticism when he was the country PM

Stubb’s upbringing took place on the western outskirts of Helsinki. His mother, a housewife, spoke Finnish, while his father, engaged in ice hockey administration, spoke Swedish, a recognized minority language in Finland. After completing his education in Finland and subsequently in the US, Belgium, and the UK, Stubb entered the political arena in 2004 as a member of the European Parliament. His political prominence in Finland began in 2008 when, to his surprise, he was appointed foreign minister.

While lauded by allies for his dynamic approach to politics, Stubb faced criticism during his governmental tenure for occasional impulsive remarks. He was compelled to apologize after being accused of using strong language during a Nordic Council meeting, a regional cooperation body.

In 2014, during a challenging year as prime minister, Stubb struggled to reverse the declining popularity of his National Coalition Party (NCP) and suffered a parliamentary election loss in 2015 amid an economic downturn. After a subsequent stint as finance minister, he withdrew from Finnish politics in 2017, vowing never to return.

Stubb has a very strong stance against Russia

In a recent debate with Haavisto, Stubb expressed a perspective that regardless of the election outcome, it would benefit Finland. He has declared his intention to serve as a unifying force in Finnish society, a need highlighted by recent racism scandals involving government ministers and strikes over work conditions and wages that disrupted public services.

Stubb and Haavisto generally shared similar views on addressing Finland’s crucial foreign policy challenges, particularly in adopting a firm stance against Russia. However, observers perceived Stubb as slightly more assertive or hawkish in his approach toward the Kremlin.

One point of divergence was Haavisto’s opposition to the presence of nuclear weapons on Finnish soil, while Stubb suggested that such a presence might be necessary under specific circumstances. Additionally, Stubb seemed more inclined than Haavisto to consider allowing a Finnish military presence on the strategically significant Baltic Sea archipelago of Åland, overturning a policy in place since 1856.

Experts caution that Stubb must stay vigilant against potential Kremlin attempts to exert pressure on Finland before his inauguration, which could manifest through airspace violations or cyberattacks. Moscow has previously faced accusations of orchestrating the influx of immigrants from the Middle East at Russia’s border with Finland during the winter, and similar tactics might be employed again. Analysts think that authorities should be prepared for the likelihood of Russia testing Finland in some manner.

Stubb is set to assume the presidency on March 1, expressing gratitude to voters for their confidence on Sunday night. He described the election victory as the “honour of my life.”