Decoding the significance of Imran Khan’s supporters’ dominance in Pakistani elections

Pakistan’s parliamentary elections, held on February 8, 2024, have produced a surprising and unprecedented result. Independent candidates backed by Imran Khan, the former prime minister who is currently in jail on corruption charges, have taken a shock lead over the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and the opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

With more than half of the seats counted, Khan’s supporters have won 62 out of 235 contested seats, while the PML has won 46 and the PPP has won 39.

The outcome of the elections has defied almost all pre-election predictions, which had expected the PML to retain its majority and form the next government. The PML, led by three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, had campaigned on its economic achievements, its infrastructure projects, and its foreign policy successes.

The PPP, led by Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, the son of the assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, had campaigned on its social welfare programs, its democratic credentials, and its anti-corruption stance.

Khan’s supporters, on the other hand, faced numerous challenges and disadvantages during the election campaign. Khan, who had founded the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party in 1996, had been disqualified from running in the elections due to his criminal convictions, which he claims were politically motivated.

His party’s candidates had to run as independents, as they were barred from using the party symbol, a cricket bat, to help illiterate voters find them on the ballots. They were also denied the opportunity to hold rallies, open offices, or conduct online events, as they were blocked by the election authorities and the police. Khan’s supporters had accused the PML and the PPP of conspiring with the military and the judiciary to rig the elections and to prevent them from competing.

Despite these obstacles, Khan’s supporters had managed to mobilize and galvanize a large and diverse base of voters, especially among the youth, the urban middle class, and the rural poor. They had appealed to the people’s discontent and frustration with the status quo, the corruption, and the inequality in the country.

They had also tapped into the people’s admiration and sympathy for Khan, who is widely regarded as a charismatic and honest leader, who had brought glory to the nation as a cricket star, and who had sacrificed his freedom and his reputation for his political cause.

What this victory means

The implications of the elections are significant and far-reaching for Pakistan’s politics and society. The elections have shown that there is a strong demand and a potential for change and reform in the country and that the people are willing to challenge and reject the established parties and the elites.

The elections have also shown that Khan’s supporters have emerged as a powerful and influential force in the country and that they have the ability and the ambition to shape the future of the nation.

However, the elections have also raised several questions and uncertainties about the stability and the direction of the country. The elections have been marred by allegations of vote rigging, violence, and irregularities, which have cast doubts on the credibility and legitimacy of the results.

There is also the creation of a fragmented and polarized parliament, where no single party has a clear majority, and where the formation of a coalition government will be difficult and contentious. The elections have also exposed the deep divisions and conflicts among the various actors and institutions in the country, such as the military, the judiciary, the media, and the civil society.

The fate and the role of Khan himself will also be a key factor in the post-election scenario. Khan, serving a 10-year sentence in a high-security prison, has not yet commented on the election results. Still, his supporters have demanded his release and his reinstatement as the prime minister.

Khan’s supporters have also vowed to continue their fight for justice and democracy and to implement their agenda of ending corruption, poverty, and extremism in the country