Asteroid 2024 YR4: A ‘city-killer’ on a collision course with earth?

A chilling forecast has sent shockwaves through the global scientific community—asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock up to 90 meters (300 feet) wide, has a 2.3% chance of slamming into Earth on December 22, 2032. If it does, the impact could unleash a blast equivalent to eight megatons of TNT, over 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.

The Arguments

How Real Is the Threat?

Despite the alarming predictions, space agencies urge caution. While a 2.3% probability may sound high in astronomical terms, that still means there’s a 97.7% chance the asteroid will miss Earth. Historically, asteroid impact risks tend to decrease over time as more precise tracking refines their projected orbits.

NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are currently mobilizing their most advanced telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), to gather more data. By measuring the asteroid’s heat signature and refining trajectory models, they hope to determine whether 2024 YR4 poses a genuine threat—or if it will be another near miss.

One alternative scenario suggests the asteroid could hit the Moon instead of Earth. While this would create a brilliant explosion visible from Earth, it would pose no direct danger.

Can We Stop It?

If 2024 YR4 is indeed on a collision course, could we prevent catastrophe? At present, NASA has no means to deflect an asteroid on short notice. However, planetary defense efforts are underway. The recent Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully altered the trajectory of a small asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it. A similar approach could be applied to larger asteroids in the future, given enough preparation time.

What’s Next?

In the coming months, astronomers will continue tracking 2024 YR4 as it makes a close pass of Earth in March, at a distance of 5 million miles (8 million km). If observations confirm an impending collision, emergency plans could include mass evacuations of impact zones, infrastructure reinforcement, and global coordination for disaster response.

For now, the world watches and waits. Will 2024 YR4 be another cosmic close call, or are we witnessing the countdown to a major impact event?

The Facts

Discovery & Size

First detected on December 27, 2024, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter. It is currently traveling at a staggering 29,000 mph (46,800 km/h).

Impact Probability

The asteroid currently holds the highest impact probability among all known large asteroids—1 in 43, or 2.3%. It has been given a rare rating of 3 on the Torino Scale, a measure of asteroid threat levels.

Projected Impact Zone

If 2024 YR4 does collide with Earth, it is expected to hit within a narrow ‘risk corridor’ stretching from northern South America, across the Pacific, to sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia. Densely populated areas such as Chennai, India, and Hainan Island, China, are within this corridor.

Potential Damage

Scientists estimate the explosion could rival the Tunguska event of 1908, which flattened 80 million trees over 830 square miles (2,150 square km) in Siberia. A similar impact over a populated area would result in massive destruction, fatalities up to 12 miles (19 km) from ground zero, and widespread infrastructure collapse.