Are US allies spending less money on NATO defence?

Former US President Donald Trump has generated strong reactions in Europe by suggesting that the United States might not defend NATO allies against a potential Russian attack if he wins the November election. Trump underlined the need for certain NATO members to increase their military spending to ensure protection. During a campaign rally in South Carolina, the Republican Party’s presidential frontrunner recounted telling an unnamed leader from a significant NATO country that he would “encourage Russia to do whatever they want” with nations not meeting defence expenditure expectations.

NATO, consisting of 31 European nations along with the US and Canada, operates under Article 5, which mandates a collective response to an attack on any member. Although Trump had previously criticized NATO members’ military spending during his presidency, the geopolitical landscape has evolved, marked by Russia’s actions in Ukraine and an elevated threat perception in Europe.

The facts

Following the Cold War, NATO defence spending saw a significant decrease from 4.1% of combined GDP in 1990 to 2.6% in 2000, despite the alliance expanding. In 2014, members agreed to contribute at least 2% of their GDP to NATO by 2024 to enhance funding.

As of Trump’s presidency in 2017, only four countries – the US, Greece, the United Kingdom, and Poland – met the 2% threshold. Trump consistently argued for pressuring allies to increase their military budgets. By 2022, the number of nations meeting the 2% benchmark had expanded to eight: the US, UK, Greece, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Croatia.

Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and concerns about Russia’s expansionist goals, more European members raised their military budgets, bringing the number to 11 in 2023. Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and new NATO entrant Finland all surpassed the 2% threshold, while Croatia fell just below it. Luxembourg (0.7%) spends the least relative to its GDP, and Belgium (1.1%), Turkey (1.3%), Spain (1.3%), Slovenia (1.4%), and Canada (1.4%) are among the nations with lower spending.

The arguments

Despite increased spending by some NATO members, the alliance’s reliance on the size and strength of the US military has grown. The US consistently spends more than all other members combined, accounting for 61% of the alliance’s defence spending in 1990 and increasing to 70% by 2020.

Several NATO members have announced their intentions to increase defence budgets and meet the 2% target following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium have pledged to reach the threshold in 2025, 2028, 2029, and 2035, respectively. In December, the alliance unveiled a 2.03-billion-euro ($2.4bn) military budget for 2024, representing a 12% increase from the previous year.

The White House reports that the US has provided Ukraine with more financial aid than any other country, totalling $44 billion since 2022. Despite these efforts, NATO is still falling short of its target for individual member military spending. Western European countries, especially Germany, have been slow to increase their budgets, with Berlin seeing only a 0.1% rise in spending as a percentage of GDP from 2021 to 2023. In contrast, Poland nearly doubled its spending during the same period.

Former President Donald Trump’s recent comments have raised concerns within NATO about potential disruptions if he returns to power. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned that any suggestion that allies might not defend themselves undermines overall security and exposes US and European soldiers to increased risks.

Trump’s history with NATO has been contentious, including withholding nearly $400 million in Congress-approved funding to Ukraine in 2019 due to perceived insufficient contributions from other NATO members. The issue of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, despite not being a current member, has further strained relations, with Russia opposing the move.

Fellow Republicans, including Trump’s lone remaining challenger for the Republican presidential nomination, Nikki Haley, have criticized his comments, emphasizing the importance of not siding with Russia in the context of the Ukraine conflict.