Forecasting the 2024 Oscars: 8 Likely Winners

The 96th Academy Awards are less than a month away, and the race for the coveted golden statuettes is heating up. With the nominations announced on January 23, the contenders have been narrowed down to the best of the best in the film industry. But who will emerge victorious on the big night of March 10? Here are our predictions for the eight major categories, based on the current buzz, awards season results, and historical trends.

Best Picture (Oppenheimer)

The frontrunner for the top prize is Christopher Nolan’s epic historical drama Oppenheimer, which tells the story of the physicist who led the development of the atomic bomb during World War II. The film has received rave reviews from critics and audiences alike, praising its technical excellence, emotional impact, and moral complexity. The film has also dominated the awards circuit, winning the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, and the BAFTA for best picture. The film has a total of 13 Oscar nominations, the most of any film this year, and is widely expected to sweep the major categories, including Best Picture.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Christopher Nolan is one of the most acclaimed and influential filmmakers of his generation who is known for his ambitious and original visions that combine spectacle and intellect. He has been nominated for five Oscars in the past but has never won. This year, however, he seems poised to finally break his curse, as his masterful direction of Oppenheimer has earned him universal acclaim and recognition. He has already won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, the BAFTA, and the DGA for best director, making him the clear favourite to win the Oscar as well.

Best Actor: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

Paul Giamatti is a veteran actor who has been delivering consistently excellent performances for decades but has never been nominated for an Oscar. That changed this year, as he received his first nod for his role in “The Holdovers,” a comedy-drama about a high school teacher who forms an unlikely bond with a troubled student during a snowstorm. He faces some tough competition from Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction), and Colman Domingo (Rustin), but he has the edge of being a long-overdue and beloved actor who finally gets his due.

Best Actress: Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Emma Stone is a versatile and charismatic actress who has already won an Oscar for her role in La La Land (2016). This year, she returns to the musical genre with Poor Things, a dark comedy based on the novel by Alasdair Gray, in which she plays a young woman who is brought back to life by a mad scientist after drowning herself. Stone’s performance has been hailed as a tour de force of singing, dancing, and acting, showcasing her range and talent. She has won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, and the BAFTA for best actress, and is likely to repeat her success at the Oscars.

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

Robert Downey Jr. is a Hollywood legend who has reinvented himself several times throughout his career, most notably as the iconic Iron Man in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. This year, he surprised everyone with his dramatic turn in Oppenheimer, playing the military general who oversees the Manhattan Project. Downey Jr.’s performance has been lauded for its intensity, charisma, and complexity, and has earned him his third Oscar nomination, after Chaplin (1992) and Tropic Thunder (2008). He has won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, and the BAFTA for best supporting actor, and is the frontrunner to win the Oscar as well.

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph is a rising star who made her breakthrough with her role in The Holdovers, playing a cafeteria manager and grieving mother Mary Lamb. Randolph has won the SAG for Best Supporting Actress and is the favourite to win the Oscar as well. She faces some formidable opponents, such as Jodie Foster (Nyad), America Ferrera (Barbie), Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), and Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), but she has the benefit of being a fresh and exciting newcomer who steals the show.

Best Original Screenplay: The Holdovers (David Hemingson)

The Holdovers is a witty and touching script by David Hemingson, a TV writer who makes his feature film debut with this project. The script has been praised for its sharp dialogue, clever plot, and heartfelt message, and has won the Critics Choice and the WGA for best original screenplay. It faces some tough competition from Past Lives (Celine Song), Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet), Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer), and May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik), but it has the edge of being a crowd-pleasing and original story that appeals to a wide audience.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)

Oppenheimer is a brilliant and complex script by Christopher Nolan, who also directs the film. The script is based on the biography American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin, and explores the life and legacy of the man who changed the course of history. The script has been praised for its historical accuracy, narrative structure, and thematic depth, and has won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, and the BAFTA for best adapted screenplay.