ECOWAS crisis: Whose fault, who loses at the end?

ECOWAS had taken a firm stance, asserting that it does not recognise military-led governments. The bloc declared that coups would no longer be tolerated following the military takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, as well as an attempted coup in Guinea-Bissau, Reuters reported.

Diary of poor, landlocked nations

In many global indexes, the trio has emerged among the poorest nations in the world, including a recent Global Finance report on the poorest countries in the world.

With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- Power Purchasing Parity (PPP) of $2639, Mali ranked as the 16^th poorest nation in a 2024 report. Burkina Faso followed immediately in 17^th position with a GDP-PPP of $2683, while Niger is the 5^th poorest with a GDP-PPP of $1579.

The head of macro strategy at the London-based investment management company FIM Partners, Charlie Robertson, likened the decision by the trio to leave ECOWAS to the "silliest own goal since the United Kingdom voted for Brexit," referencing Britain's departure from the European Union. Robertson expressed the view that the three countries were already among the poorest in ECOWAS and globally, and their exit would not be beneficial. He pointed out that the trio collectively accounts for only 8% of the bloc's gross domestic product.

The founder of the West African think tank WATHI, Gilles Yabi, highlighted that Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso had not explicitly announced their withdrawal from the regional monetary and economic union that uses the CFA franc. Yabi stressed that such a withdrawal would have a more substantial impact on the region, stating, "I think Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso know that it's not easy – it's not possible, actually – to withdraw from the monetary union when you don't have your system in place, a new currency in place, for example," he quoted by Reuters.

Trade deficits in the subregion

The sudden withdrawal signifies a regression in regional integration. A move that potentially plunges the subregion’s thriving trade fortunes into the abyss. In 2022, Punch NG reported that the ECOWAS region recorded total trade volumes, encompassing both imports and exports, amounting to $277.22 billion. In the same year, Burkina Faso is reported to have contributed $4.55 billion to exports and $5.63 billion to imports within the subregion. Mali contributed $3.91 billion to exports and $6.45 billion to imports, while Niger contributed $446.14 million to exports and $3.79 billion to imports.

In this regard, Seidik Abba, the president of the Paris-based CIRES think tank, notes that while Niger shares a substantial 1,500km border with Nigeria, 80% of its trade is conducted with its wealthier neighbour. Moreover, Ghana, Togo, and Benin host significant diaspora communities originating from Niger. Thus, "if they decide to go ahead and leave, it will become a very big problem, economically and politically, and the stakes are the highest for the people from these three countries," he said. Adding that in terms of security, "the departure from ECOWAS will have catastrophic consequences for the ability to respond to the many security challenges facing this region."

ECOWAS failed?

In the face of consecutive coups in the three nations and more – Niger (July 2023), Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), and Burkina Faso (January, September 2022) – the potency of the regional bloc is questioned. From the perspective of the three nations, ECOWAS has failed. This is evident in the statement by Colonel Amadou Abdramane, Niger junta spokesman, "After 49 years, the valiant peoples of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger regretfully and with great disappointment observe that the (ECOWAS) organization has drifted from the ideals of its founding fathers and the spirit of Pan-Africanism." He adds that "the organisation notably failed to assist these states in their existential fight against terrorism and insecurity," Abdramane added.

A retired Nigerian ambassador to Mexico, Ogbole Amedu-Ode, said, “It is important to note that in a situation like this, ECOWAS, instead of integrating the region or sub-region in West Africa, is disintegrating it. From a 16-member organisation to 15 when Mauritania left to join the Arab Union, and now because of the political and democratic process being interrupted by military rule in these three countries, they decided to impose sanctions. That of Niger was particularly vicious because there was the threat of the use of force,” he is quoted by Punch NG.

A new Russian alliance

Now, without the mutual benefits derived from the ECOWAS bloc, the three military governments may be looking to rely on their new alliance with Russia for sustenance and economic support. Russia has rekindled its alliance in the Sahel Region, presenting more favourable alternatives to Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in the wake of their problematic relationships with their EU partners.

This move followed the trio's decision to withdraw from the G5 Sahel anti-jihadi force, citing a lack of achievements and France's predominant role. They expressed dissatisfaction with the organization's failure to meet its objectives and pointed to institutional red tape hindering their legitimate ambitions for security and development in the G5 Sahel. This led them to conclude that their pursuit of independence and dignity is incompatible with the current form of G5 participation.

Russia strategically offered military cooperation, food security, resources, and notably, a commitment to peace. Burkina Faso's interim military leader, Ibrahim Traore, highlighted the evolving nature of alliances, stating that the departure of the French army doesn't diminish France's status as an ally. Instead, new forms of cooperation have emerged, with Russia being a strategic ally, a sentiment echoed by Traore, who expressed satisfaction with their candid collaboration. In October, Construct Africa reported that Russia further solidified its engagement by signing a nuclear power cooperation agreement with Mali and Burkina Faso, aiming to develop nuclear facilities in both countries. Following suit, Niger, having severed ties with its EU partners, declared its intent to enhance defence cooperation with Russia.